Ok, I will give my guess. You make money, and have fun, but don't necessarily do better than just holding VOO.
So, something like solving the BSM eq for z by using the Premium, and then applying some probabilistic calcs like p(z) and calcing GE (or LE) etc. Yep, good idea. Thx.
variables are premium volatility underlying price find what are the chances there will be a move beyond premium. scale for time. I am not referring to anything difficult. This is what a 14 or 15 year old learns in school