only indicators that dont lag are bid/ask/last. show me anythin' as close as reliable and i buy into it.
Yes, Basically the indicator charts what the market will do 6 1/2 hrs in advanced. The indicator starts charting at 9:30, and updates the prediction every 15 minutes. The system also looks for the best past prediction, this is the prediction that made the least error with respect to what really happened, and charts it. In this way you know how strong is the prediction. How reliable is that path, with respect to others. Today the prediction was very good. I started posting chart samples at 14:32, for the review of any trader that thinks that leading indicators do not exist. The first chart I posted, corresponded to the prediction issued at 12:45. This was the Best Past prediction computed by the system at 14:32. Basically what it displayed was that the fitting so far, was very good, so if no mayor news impacted the market, the path was probably correct. (The black line corresponds to the prediction. You have a complete day charted on market opens in BLACK) Then market is charted in red. Then I posted how it evolve. Check my lasts posts. Take care!
Off topic but a head and shoulders is simply a pivot on the time frame about 8 times longer then you see the head and shoulders on Flags are inside bars on the time frame 8 times higher then you see the flag on. Any time frame chart is a shadow of a higher time frame. Prices are simply meanderings around statistical boundaries of higher time frames. Just play wid it. John
Hi Brownsfan, I just wanted to share with you a prediction from today. Market was very chopy, but the predictor was able good in it prediction. I still believe this is a predictive indicator, and not lagging. What do you think? Take care.
dan, Note that predictive is not neccessarily the opposite of lagging. Leading is the opposite of lagging. Leading indicators are the trading equivalent of perpetual motion or burning water in car engines. The closing price neither leads nor lags because it is the most recent information. Indicators use prices and volume to create a filtered representation of the information. How much filtering and smoothing is done determines how closely the follow price. So emas, stochs, macds lag price quite a lot. T3 mas, HMAs and Jurik mas have all been developed to get the lag as small as possible for a given amount of filtering and smoothing. Predictive is different. If price is above the emas and retraces toward the emas I can predict that when it starts to move back in the direction of trend it has a (say) 70% chance that it will reach the prior high again and a 50% chance that it will exceed it by 40%. Etc etc. So that used a lagging indicator to make a prediction about future price behavior (based on studying the past). Astrology and cycles are both predictive - cycles filter out (lagging) and then recombine internally detectable cycles within the data and then assume that in future the same cycles will repeat (just like the assumptions about rebounding from the mas but they take it further). Without arguing about whether cycles or elliot wave or other complex projections of past behavior will work, or how well or how reliably, hopefully that makes the point.
Thinking about what I said there. If an "indicator" was statistically right some percentage of the time about future behaviour that might be the equivalent of a perpetual motion generator creating energy from nothing some percentage of the time (and absorbing some other percentage of time). Thus it could generate energy some of the time. Thus a predictive/leading? indicator could be correct some of the time. I guess the real question about a predictive indicator is: -a. does it encourage you to hold longer when right? -b. does it encourage you to hold longer when wrong? If a but not b its a good thing IMHO.
And if we flip quarters you will be right some of the time....does that mean you can predict heads or tails? No indicator based on past price reliably leads future price....period.... Don't confuse coincidence with prediction....
Uh, no.... I will just continue to use price as my indicator and let you carry on with whatever you think works...