At the risk of sounding like a bond newbie (which I am)...I am curious to learn if folks here are invested in any of the ETFs taking advantage of the thought that US Yields have no place to go but up.
I agree with your economic forecast. However, bonds are oversold right now with bullish divergence on stochastics and price is moving up. The COT report also indicates that the commercial traders have been getting progressively more long in recent weeks. Ideally, I would like to see bonds rally to resistance, for the commercials to get short and for bonds to be overbought on the weekly chart. Then I plan to buy TBT.
TBF for 1x short exposure. I'd avoid the leveraged "ultra" shorts. If you want leverage and can trade options in the account you plan to trade this, consider synthetic short positions on TLT.
No, I'm not looking for leverage. I'm looking to buy and hold for a while, and as we all know, the levered funds are not designed for such a strategy. thanks for the answers, gents. Mak - TBF is 20year...is there a similar one with shorter term bonds?
for what reasons other than paying out of dividends directly is a synthetic short on TLT preferable than going to short TLT itself?
Not sure how up to date this is, but it appears that's the only unleveraged one: http://www.bondetf.net/short-bond-etf.htm