"Yields on the two-year note may very well be at a historic low, but I can guarantee you bonds are going higher. I expect the yield on the 10-year to fall to 3.6%. This will be the last time to buy at these levels for a long time." by stock tr4ader/bond tr4der http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=110210 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=^TNX
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=112445&perpage=6&pagenumber=1 and subsequently by another poster..... whitster Registered: Feb 2006 Posts: 1856 12-21-07 07:24 PM trading is not about always being right heck, many traders make good money only being right (trade hitting a target before a stop) 30% of the time. regardlss, of trader methodology (scalper, position player, whatever), traders make money when they make trades with a positive expectancy. - is the risk well defined, is their compelling risk/reward, etc. we had a 10% drop in the vix today. VIX got down to mid 18's!!! this should tell you something. options traders are not putting a premium (pun intended ) on risk. imo, the most compelling trade today was to go long volatility. you don't have to be RIGHT. but volatility has contracted so much that the risk/reward is phenomenally compelling. last time i saw a similar situation, i got some DIA puts that gave me 20-45 % return in a # of days ( i scale out of winning positions generally). that's a compelling trade, when the risk is (getting a fair amount of time in the puts) relatively small to the downside imo (and that's not a what i want to see opinion, but a statistically based opinion), puts were a frigging STEAL today- specifically mar 2008 puts. you can sit on them for a few weeks and lose little time premium, with the potential for volatility expansion or even one nasty 200-500 pt selloff making this quite a compelling trade. but was it a "sucker's rally?" NOBODY knows. it was a big gap, that barely retraced and ran mostly into the close. whether it balances at this new area, retraces, or continues upwards - NOBODY knows and anybody who tells you they do know is lying or deluded
Avarus/wave called the dow to be down 400 at 9:30 am, maybe at the time the dow was down 50 points. Sure enough the dow was down 400+ that day. This was on es journal don't remember exactly when, f**king amazing.
Rearden Metal's call on BIDU, among others. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=73601&highlight=rm+call