So, short interest is at an all time high and the VIX is just about average. "If the current levels of the VIX are any guide, we still have a lot of pain to go through before that bottom is reached." What do the crisis indicators show? Let's throw in a bank and broker default risk chart just for fun. Conclusion: We are headed much lower. I wouldn't go long until we see fear in the VIX. Right now we are hearing a lot of fear but not seeing it in market movements. Short interest is an indicator of where we are headed. Target - Dow 10,000 before year end. The Fed sponsored rally is over, they are out of bullets.
Yawn. More "cut and paste" on ET. Does anyone do any original thinking on ET anymore, or do they simply and naively take comfort in looking at a 1 year chart of the VIX for a historical perspective? Please . . .
You are an idiot. I put a trade on risking roughly 7 handles in the S&P in order to make nearly 100 based on some technicals that I follow and said that I was currently buying defense stocks such as BA, LMT, LLL, and GD. I posted targets for the SPX. I posted levels needed to confirm. And I posted a stop-loss at 1335.32 Meanwhile, you never replied back to my question about what you were shorting, at what level, and where your stop was. All you could say was the typical . . . "Da Market is going lower." Feel free to check how the defense stocks that I named last week in my post have done since last Thursday's opening. BA, LMT, LLL, and GD are all up. But thanks for your concern. LOL! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=129637 Ka-Ching. P.S. Got anymore "cut and paste" posts for us?
Thx. There are a couple of errors on your charts, however. They are easy to spot. This third leg (down) is underway. By the end of 2008 there will have been 7 legs (meaning 4 still to come after this down leg completes. The two factors in legs are their extent and duration (like golf shots (two dimensions) as they say). The commencement of the third leg was cool because it did establish the envelop for the year. When such trends are established it does bring up one aspect of the opportunity represented (speaking from a neutral bias point of view). The complex of Summer arriving then ending and the "unknowns" before and after the elections give us that nifty picture of how volatility expansion comes down the pipe of an established annual trend following point 3. I like the coloring too: that additional sour hitting the refineries with the most diesel capacity. African, Russian, and war zone oil will add to the color too. Well, on with hurricane season (did you notice the delta on the gulf temp?). Have to keep these short from now on; some people can't ignore me.
Short interest increased +80% as the SP500 rallied 100% from 2003 through 2007. How is it a good indicator of future stock market performance?
Short interest is kinda irrelevant since there's a secular trend for higher short interest due to the expanding allocation to hedge funds. Certainly it will be unlikely to be as reliable as previously (if it ever was - I've never used it). What is reliable is sentiment. And sentiment is absolutely NO WAY NEAR anything resembling fear. Thus, I anticipate we at least test the Jan and March lows of S&P 1250ish, and are quite likely to eventually go below there. However, that latter call I will leave until the first one plays out or gets proven wrong. IMO the right strategy is sell/short bounces in the S&P all the way down to 1250-60, then look at the VIX. If it's 30+ then we may have a tradeable low. Otherwise it's more likely that we move lower, which will cause some real panic. Another point to mention is that this year's market has really been split by sectors. Why trade the S&P when you can go long energy, infrastructure, agriculture, defence, and go short financials, real estate, autos, consumer goods. Minimal overall market risk and you win on both sides. IMO we could see a *very* bearish second half of 2008.
Look at the QQQQs, price sitting right on the neckline. Not a huge fan of H&S but I like ones where you can trade with the trend (down). We might get a bounce here to 47-47.50 (at very least close the gap) which should present a good opportunity to short for an eventual break through the neck line with a target in the 43-44 area. QM looking like it wants to break out to 144. EWZ looks good for a bounce trade here 89.03
charts in my opinion are the best guide to the forex traders to pave their way to the right trading process.