Where did I say anyone who disagrees with me is a shill? Another generalization. As for Shadowstats, yeah there are some questions about his methodology. Fine. There are also tons of questions about gov't econ data and methods. There have been numerous changes in methodology over the years to reflect more "comfortable" numbers. If you don't want to deal with it, fine. You're comfortable that the adjustments are all 100% objective and have nothing to do with massaging? Because your academic papers tell you so? I'm willing to say CPI, unemployment figures, etc. are roughly hafway between Shadowstats and "official" numbers. But there's no reason not to trust MIT's numbers. If anything, they lean towards establishment/mainstream economics, so there's no reason in the world for them to skew anything. But their data is valuable because it's not manipulated in the least. And it isn't pretty for the deflationist/Fed lover's camp. As for Stockman, he actually presents a good case against Immelt, Paulsen, et. al. who yelled "fire" and induced panic before anyone really thought through what we did. I don't expect his "Why Deficits Do Matter" piece to be answered by that crowd.
We're talking about economics, not physics. It's very different. What I mean by that is you're talking about an opposite and equal reaction to something that is artificial and sometimes without precedent. There are no opposite and equal reactions, there are people, money, and human emotion, so theres chaos. Not in the oblivion sense of the word, but in the unpredictability of it all. You do not know what will happen until it does. So far the 'opposite' reaction has been a 100% market rally from the crash lows. Housing was the mispriced asset and I don't think it matters how many people are under on thier mortgage, that doensn't mean what THEY feel is the 'correct' price of their property doesn't make it so, that was the problem in the first place with the bubble. People bought a house and figured a new kitchen and a few new bushes meant an extra 100k in property value when it didn't. We could be at the true value of homes/property now, the only difference is people wont accept it because they're all hosed on the property, paying 500k+ over the next 20 years for something worth 200k. Thats their fault. Thats just a shitty investment and bad business. Can't blame the Fed for people being stupid. "How is the average citizen benefitting from what the central bank has done?" There is continuing talk of the average citizen in this whole mess. The workers, the union guys, etc. They're a part of this mess too, and a lot of them are the greediest. People quitting their blue collar jobs years ago to go sell real estate and "flip" houses. Theres a big red flag right there. One problem in my opinion was that real estate became an investment opportunity for any and everyone and then greed set it. "Housing prices won't go down and I can pay off 3 ARM's at a time while putting them up for sale and be ok, and once I sell, ill make a million dollars!!" I've never been a fan of real estate as an investment, I pushed my friend away from buying a house years ago just like these other fools did and he didn't listen and got hosed. A home should be a major purchase for someone and a place to live. If you're not buying a home to live in, then you should rent. If you're buying a home as a rental income investment, then it should be something that you can BUY, not take a mortgage out on and "cover the mortgage payment with the rental income" Thats irresponsible of you ask me. If you are liquid for 10 million and want to buy 4 or 5 half million dollar homes to rent out because there is a market for it then God bless. But if you're net worth is 500k but you can affor the mortgage on 4 or 5 different homes and think you can have them rented out at all times, then you're a moron and deserve whatever happens, maybe you get lucky and get away with it (some did) or maybe you get hosed and you claim bankruptcy and lose everything. But thats your own fault.
I wonât to be convinced by a pro central bank supporter how the AVERAGE CITIZEN BENIFFITS from a central bank. I have an open mind.
And that was exactly my point in concern to equal and opposing reactions, so what is the point of your response?
You take the money from someone else and you are made whole again, maybe you take it by scaring them half to death or by strong arming them into giving it to you. Now, chances are sometime in the future you'd do it again, shit that was easy lets do it again and again since we have nothing to lose and everything to gain. So where does this cycle end? doesnt look good does it? get it? imagine it was your gambling cousin ...cmon cuz lend me another thou today and when I hit parley on a sure thing like the heat winning tonight ill give you back $1500 ...knowing very well that you can go to grandma and scare her out of the money if your cuz doesnt pay up...
The market is not static it's dynamic, physics plays a huge roll in modern markets, HFT, algorithms,quantum physics, emotions now days plays a minor role, therefore my statement is correct.
You're misunderstanding my point. This isn't a conversation about morals or opinions, its about facts, thats what the banks were doing. Was it right? should they have done it? obviously not, but they were given the opportunity to make a lot of money and they took the opportunity. They werent putting a gun to anyones head, they weren't making death threats or (for the most part) doing illegal activities, people wanted houses, banks said here's what you need, sign if you want the house, and the people signed. Now morally, a banker should tell a guy who makes 20k a year about to sign a 500k 30 year mortgage with an ARM attatched that he can barely afford at even low rates that hes making a mistake, can't and shouldn't do it and he's gonna get screwed, but that didn't exactly happen. Everyone wanted more, more money, more greed, bigger bonuses, bigger promotion by kissing up to the bosses and signing more mortgages and making your boss look good. But at the end of the day, its the people that are to blame. They make the final decisions.
im not discussing what took place, It's obvious. I am discussing how the aftermath was handled and how it is still being handled....to benefit the Banks mostly, not the little people ...whatever big guy, we are all in this together...have a great day.