Bernanke comments and the consumer

Matt24SPFL · Jul 11, 2007

Quote from Cache Landing:

Politicians influence the market long term but not short. People give politicians way too much credit. Their policies take time to have an effect.

Bernanke statements only affect the market because of speculation. These statements do not change underlying fundamentals and are therefore meaningless. Again it takes years to see the effects of monetary policy change.
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That is a very good point. I was essentially standing in front of a tree seeing just the tree, you just helped me take a few steps back and see the forest. Thank you.

GL and GT

Ivanovich · Jul 11, 2007

Quote from Algorithm:

As I have stated before....

WHO CARES IF PEOPLE ARE LOSING THEIR HOUSES WITH THOSE MINIMAL DOWNPAYMENTS?

The environment got overheated and many people that should never have been buying houses in the first place did so. They got into those houses with minimal downpayments due to the fact that lenders chose to raise their risk exposure in order to lend more money. The people on the hook are not those that got into the "cheap money" mortgages, it's the lenders.

The unemployment rate is below 5%. Those that are getting foreclosed upon were overextended and didn't buy within their means due to the fact that they were able to overextend cheaply. They will simply lose their homes and go back to renting. Hey, it was their decision to buy a 250K home versus a 175K one. They aren't really out anything due to the fact they would never have been in a house in the first place unless the exotic moorages were around.

Many on these boards simply don't get it. The risk isn't on the homebuyer, it's on the lenders. Those lenders in turn distributed that risk amongst pension funds, large individual investors and hedge funds.

Look I'm not going to shed a tear for a family that got into a house that they never could have afforded in the first place and lost it due to some stupid exotic loan. That is a much different scenario than a family losing their house because they can't make the note because the bread winners lost their jobs. Those are two separate situations. The job market is stable, no recession and those that are losing their houses ARE NOT BEING TOSSED TO THE CURB. They are going back to renting.

Many here at ET simply don't understand risk pricing and distribution (hence most here are not running hedge funds, THANK GOD).

Now I will wait for all those that are going to tell me that the national unemployment numbers are bogus.

BTW, Bush has little to nothing to due with the housing market and monetary policy. Greenspan cut rates deeply due to the compounded effects of the stock market bubble bursting and 911. The housing bubble was simply an overheating of monetary policy that was engineered to decrease the effects of recession. People don't tend to go out and spend money when buildings are literally falling down around them. Oh, and the BRIC countries would never have expanded to the extent that they have thus far with a strong US dollar.

Federal pork spending and the Iraq war, that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish. The current housing market situation was created by the lenders and extenders of credit. It too shall pass just as the bubble bursting in 2000-2001. As long as we don't bail any lenders out through government regulations and policy, this will make those that deserve to survive stronger and those that improperly managed risk perish.

Place your bets and...

Good Luck!
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Great post.

Cache Landing · Jul 11, 2007

Quote from Algorithm:

Now I will wait for all those that are going to tell me that the national unemployment numbers are bogus.

BTW, Bush has little to nothing to due with the housing market and monetary policy. Greenspan cut rates deeply due to the compounded effects of the stock market bubble bursting and 911. The housing bubble was simply an overheating of monetary policy that was engineered to decrease the effects of recession. People don't tend to go out and spend money when buildings are literally falling down around them. Oh, and the BRIC countries would never have expanded to the extent that they have thus far with a strong US dollar.

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I completely agree with your post.

And if my area is at all indicative of the rest of the country, the unemployment rate is actually lower than 5%. Our last estimate put this area at about 2%. Employers are trying to find workers but there aren't any.

daddyeaux · Jul 11, 2007

the unemployment rate doesn't include those that have run out of unemp. insurance or stopped looking for work...

the rate is likley around 8%....

all this shortage of workers BS is floated by pro immigrant (illegal to legal) special interest groups

Cache Landing · Jul 11, 2007

Quote from daddyeaux:

the unemployment rate doesn't include those that have run out of unemp. insurance or stopped looking for work...

the rate is likley around 8%....

all this shortage of workers BS is floated by pro immigrant (illegal to legal) special interest groups
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You can make those claims all you want, but the other day I had to go looking for people who wanted a job because we really can't find any that aren't bottom of the barrell meth addicts. We also have a large Mexican population. Numbers are just numbers but those involved in the hiring process here know what they are seeing.

fframe38 · Jul 11, 2007

Quote from Cache Landing:

You can make those claims all you want, but the other day I had to go looking for people who wanted a job because we really can't find any that aren't bottom of the barrell meth addicts. We also have a large Mexican population. Numbers are just numbers but those involved in the hiring process here know what they are seeing.
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Questions:

1. What kind of jobs were you trying to fill?

2. What was the pay range for those jobs?

If they are low level jobs paying sh*t then this isn't surprising - there is always a shortage of people willing to work for below market wages, with the exception of methheads and illegals.

Another factor is the presence of a large Mexican population may have already resulted in many others moving elsewhere to find work that pays a reasonable wage. The end result is you are left with the dregs of society and illegal immigrants to choose from. The solution to that is to solve the illegal immigration problem, and for all employers to pay market wages to LEGAL residents only, and refuse to hire illegals. Then your area will stop resembling another Tijuana and you might have a chance to find good workers there.

Cache Landing · Jul 11, 2007

Quote from fframe38:

Questions:

1. What kind of jobs were you trying to fill?

2. What was the pay range for those jobs?

If they are low level jobs paying sh*t then this isn't surprising - there is always a shortage of people willing to work for below market wages, with the exception of methheads and illegals.

Another factor is the presence of a large Mexican population may have already resulted in many others moving elsewhere to find work that pays a reasonable wage. The end result is you are left with the dregs of society and illegal immigrants to choose from. The solution to that is to solve the illegal immigration problem, and for all employers to pay market wages to LEGAL residents only, and refuse to hire illegals. Then your area will stop resembling another Tijuana and you might have a chance to find good workers there.
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Actually my employer structures pay levels to fall in the top 2% in the county. Pay is very close to the national average. Great benefits package. Illegals mainly work construction and farms here. Our population growth is 3X the national average. We were ranked in top 10 places to live for a small metropolis last year based on cost of living, pay level, crime rate, and high school test scores.