what is "down 12" a call on? premarket, on open, after speech, at close? a simple 'touch' of 1385ish at anytime in the next 18 hrs. good enough to claim victory? what if it's down 20, would that be a miss? now, want to call the madness, what will the sliver of action on the futures over the long weekend bring. after folks have had a few hours to digest ben, but before a nice long weekend.
Reaction to the speech. He can't call for QE at this point in the election year. It would look too political and the numbers are showing some convexity. He will talk it up and say we're keeping rates low indefinitely... act when needed, blah blah blah. There will be ZERO color / comments regarding implementation of QE, so we take a bit of a hit. If we rally like a mofo I am sure I'll hear about it, but recall that at least it's a call at a price.
My thoughts... perfect action day for trading options just as they expire.. everyone seems so bearish ... I say people keep buying the speech and I'm thinking during election year no one is gonna piss off wall street
On Jun 19th SPY was 135.70 on Jun 20th the markets were (wrongly IMO) expecting QE-something. On Jun 25th the SPY was 131.32. -3.3% move in 5 days. So I'm expecting no QE and a short-term sell-off which could last all week as it's a short week and traders will become more nervous about Draghi next week.
I think that was mostly EU related. I don't recall QE being mentioned much that week. Could be wrong. Expectations are not very high for QE tomorrow.
as simple and stupid as it sounds.. the more bearish talk i hear .. the more i think we have a green day..
I pop in here to read about a ben thread, then i see this quote and almost fell over laughing...too funny!