Actually the authors of "the Fourth Turning" and I disagree on this exact point. I submitted to them that the unraveling ended with the top in stocks in 2000, just as it did with the top in stocks in 1929. The cycle is called the saeculum! http://www.fourthturning.com/my_html/body_turnings_in_history.html Enjoy! tony
I dunno... from what I remember of that old elliot wave alchemy, feels more like we are in a third wave right now than a fifth. Spike in gold prices is probably strongly related to middle eastern buying as a place to deposit their profits, or the effects of their buying at lower levels with resultant speculation. That move up from 490-535 was pure spec IMHO. Remember the islamic banking laws... gold is a much more cultural store of value for that sector of the world. Now... the big question is this... is the function of islamic buying a mechanism to persuade them to buy at the top and return value to the western world (suckers) or is it a fundamental shift? Will take a few years for mothballed mines to come on line again to increase supply. Very interesting situation. Not sure what it means. Don't discount the manipulation of gold by CB's which have a vested interest in demonetizing it.
Hi! The advance in crude prices over the past two years does appear to have helped this advance in gold. Middle Eastern buying, as you stated, the probable cause. I seem to recall, the first oil embargo had similar effects, but hyper inflation was mixed into the equation and gold soared to $800, as a safe haven. No such effects this time around. But, to me, it does look like it tagged along for the ride, as an alternative form of investment for the middle easterm monies. I don't follow it that closely, but it does look like a typical blowoff.
I'm beginning to think that the Dollar has run its course, as five waves up can be counted into the recent highs.
There was a trendline break in the Dollar Index this week. Looks like it's confirming the advance in Bonds. FED rates hikes done?
Ya, it's funny how bonds haven't followed the dollar's signal this past week... CAD didn't do too well either, since we are a petro currency...