Being a Perma bear sucks

Discussion in 'Trading' started by jr07, Sep 16, 2009.

  1. jr07


    During last year and even during the beginning of this year I lost a lot of money being long stocks, which made me aware and awake to short selling. I only began trading in mid-2007.

    Problem I have now is I think I took it too far.. mostly fueled by blogs and opinions like zerohedge, xtrends, etc. I have now turned into a "Perma Bear" and I have been calling timber since June. I keep telling everyone markets going to crash anytime soon, making a fool of myself and losing yet more money in the process.

    It seems to me being a perma bear is probably the wrong choice. After all, stocks are by nature there to go up right?

    I cant believe how stupid Ive been.. its very sad
  2. me2


    put a 50day ma on the spys- above line think long, below think short. jun/july looked like spot to get short- didnt work out- take ur stop and big deal. those fuming at the mouth usually succumb to reversion to the mean on their market calls.

    p.s. your not the only one- alot of hedge funds caught short and squirming.
  3. FB123


    Your problem is that you are trading off of other people's opinions. This implies that you don't have faith in your own analysis, which means you don't have confidence in whatever system you are using. THAT is the core of your problem.

    If you did have confidence in your own ability to decide your trades, you wouldn't care about other people's opinions unless it was to check for public sentiment as a contrary indicator.

    Here's a tip: don't be a bull or a bear. I can detect in your statement that you are about to make exactly the same mistake you just made, only in the opposite direction. When you say,

    This sounds suspiciously like someone who is starting to turn bullish. Don't be a bull or a bear. Don't have strong opinions of where the market is going to go. Don't try to pick bottoms or tops, and always assume that rallies and declines will go further than you expect, because they generally will. Let a reversal actually happen instead of anticipating it. If you don't know how to spot likely short-term and long-term reversals from a technical perspective, LEARN. Study VSA or some other technique, but start using something you feel comfortable with, and then stick with it.

    These are many of the things that differentiate winning traders from losing traders.
  4. FB123


    It's quite amazing how many bad traders actually get paid to manage other people's money.
  5. the1


    Follow these simple instructions:

    1. Buy
    2. Refer to #1.
  6. It also doesn't help that the market is rigged to go up in this latest move - defying normal market behavior of corrections, fundamentals - etc.
  7. FB123


    Incidentally, the topic of this thread and a few other bullish threads on this site is a sign that we are getting a little overextended. Be careful about going long here for more than a quick scalp.

    It's seriously incredible how many people are actually trying to go fully long right now as we are hitting an upper trendline on the daily charts. Are these people blind or what? It never fails. Seriously guys, this is SIMPLE, SIMPLE stuff. It's not rocket science. Support and resistance, extensions and pullbacks. That's it. We are due for a little pullback at some point soon, or at least a pause... I would be cautious here, although we might still have a few points left in this surge from 1030.

    (By the way this DOESN'T mean that I'm calling a long-term top! It just means that the S&P has been moving in 30 point surges lately, and we're at the top of one now. Keep in mind that trends also often overshoot the opposite line by a few points.)
  8. True, and if one wants to be a perma anything, be a perma bull at least. The mkts have an upward bias by nature.

  9. jr07


    lesson of the day!
    and thats what I was looking for
  10. The net and this board were FULL of bears for the last 6 months.

    They are now either in rehab for fact abuse, planted 6 feet under by their own hand, or planning a new career in 7-11 management.

    PS. I predicted this move way back on 4-15-09, in picture and song. Glad ya had it
    #10     Sep 16, 2009