Here are some links in regard to Behavioral Finance I posted last night in another thread in case anyone is interested in this. I'm interested in other resources people may have in relation to this. Thanks. http://www.investorhome.com/psych.htm http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Behavioral-Finance/ http://www.richard.peterson.net/buyontherumor10.html http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/ and http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/od...DoInvestors.pdf http://poweradz.investopedia.com/articles/02/112502.asp http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/nich...search/bf5b.pdf http://www.futurespartners.com/arti...ers/pruden.html
"The behavioralists have yet to come up with a coherent model that actually predicts the future rather than merely explains, with the benefit of hindsight, what the market did in the past. The big lesson is that theory doesnât tell people how to beat the market. It doesnât say âthe money is on the table. Go after it.â Instead it says that psychology causes market prices and fundamental values to part for a long time." http://poweradz.investopedia.com/articles/02/112502.asp Its kinda like Jim Puplava getting on every week telling me there's irrational exuberance out there and that things are going to hell in a handbasket. Interesting observations but can I trade off it? No. (BTW half those links posted in the first post are bad.)
Sorry about the broken links. I did a cut and paste from a previous post and forgot that ET abbreviates the URL's sometimes in the body of the post. Here are the correct links. Do Investors Trade Too Much? http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/overconf/DoInvestors.pdf A Survey of Behavioral Finance http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/nicholas.barberis/research/bf5b.pdf Hank Pruden on 'Behavioral Finance' and Technical Analysis http://www.futurespartners.com/articles/traders/pruden.html And in regard to your quote, "The behavioralists have yet to come up with a coherent model that actually predicts the future rather than merely explains, with the benefit of hindsight, what the market did in the past.", we'd have to say that nothing accurately predicts the future. TA certainly doesn't. At least it doesn't to my mind. To my mind, all these studies are a means of seeing how investors/traders and the markets behaved in the past with the assumption that they may behave in a similar fashion going forward. Is it an exact science? Certainly not. What is in regard to the markets? There are too many variables. To me observation is one of the most powerful tools any trader can use. Probably THE most powerful and useful.
http://www.behaviouralfinance.net http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/papers/ Lots of full-text on the following and else: Loss Aversion Endowment Effect Status Quo Bias Money Illusion Concurrent Decisions Hedonic Editing Self Control cheers
www.undiscoveredmanagers.com (click research library) A great resource library with references to and articles from various academians of the field.
Here's the website of a fellow with an article in the current Active Trader Magazine and who wrote an article with Linda Bradford Raschke in the Sept 2002 edition of Stock Futures and Options. Brett N. Steenbarger - The Psychology of Trading http://www.greatspeculations.com/brett.htm