Beginning of the last leg down to bottom?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by newguy05, May 26, 2008.

  1. Does anyone feel like we are at the beginning of the last leg down to a market bottom?

    1) The subprime writedowns cant deteriorate any further.
    2) Same goes for housing.
    3) Oil is through the roof, cant be sustained at this price level long term.
    4) Leh and ubs seem to be the catalyst for the start of the last leg down on this bear market

    Yes i am pretty bored right now :p
  2. um no

    oil ill keep going higher for many many ore years to come. NO bubble. no top.

    no one cares about lehman brother and UBS. Thats old news.
  3. Second round of a.r.m.s. now coming due.

    Consumers have just started feeling the affects of charging groceries and gas to their credit cards because their home/atm machines are gone .

    IEA and over 60 world wide experts are warning of an acute global shortage of oil and that we've entered an irreversible energy crisis that is totally unknown .

    If oil declines it will be because of economic decline/collapse.

    China's industrial development is saying that it plans on sourcing coal for continued development over oil.

    and I'm an optimist!!
  4. ha ha ha you are wrong

    Pundists have been saying that for years and consumers keep spending at record rates. The consumer is FAR from being tapped out in spite of rising gas, rising food, and falling home prices. Rising food and gas helps out food comaneis and oil companies as well as credit card companies. In a free market there is always a beneficiary.Also, foreigners arE buying goods in America to take advantage of the cheap dollar, which benefits retailers. In a globalist, free trade society the American consumer isn't as important.

  5. As much as I hate you and your posts, the one thing that sustains me is that I make alot more money than you . Maybe you are right, and maybe you really doesnt thing is for sure, if I thought like you I would suck at trading...just like you.

    "The wise adapt themselves to circumstances, as water moulds itself to the pitcher”
  6. man how did you get pass my ignore filter?

    You do realize that it's an inverse relationship between oil and stock market right? especially above the 120 level. For a perma bull such as yourself, your want the oil to come down so the stock market will go up.

    Look at the uso vs spx/es over the last 3 weeks, it's pretty clear.
  7. housing slump caused a recession,banks are tightening standards,gas is 4 dollars a gallon and food is through the roof. this will weigh on stocks for a while. the next shoe to drop are construction loans as an article i just read states.
  8. nope
  9. Mvic


    Maudlin put out an interesting "out of the box" note by Montier today, everyone should read as it oulines an interesting strategy but the jist was that there were a record number of stocks that are overvalued in both the US and Europe.

    "In the US, the average number of stocks in our short basket is around 30. Today, the screen finds no less than 174 stocks passing the criteria. This clearly demonstrates to me the lack of value I alluded to at the start of this note, and indeed suggests that the opportunities are now firmly on the short side"

    Also an interesting article by Kevin Phillips in Harper's (not my choice of reading material but my travelling companion was reading it and the article on the cover caught my eye)

    The jist was that the numbers by which we judge the health of the economy are being undermeasured/cooked (no surprise to most of us on ET). He postulats that based on the way they were calculated 25 years ago real inflation is running at 7-10%, unemployment is between 9-12%

    Folks, looks to me like the curtain is starting to be peeled back and the wizard is about to be revealed for what he is.
  10. #10     May 26, 2008