OPâs (journeyman) post with my bold inserts. I am bothâ¦â¦. The universal vendor creation paragraph â¦â¦.then a new trading guru is born. Anyway, here is my raw advice for any starting and especially struggling trader, The universal take my advice paragraph preceded by a necessary preamble upon the nature of trading. Take it for what it is. If one hundred people are told to sit down in a room connected to trading terminals and told simply to buy when they feel like it and sell when they feel like itâ¦â¦.. The universal âthis is what it is likeâ paragraph â¦.we could calculate the probabilities of more than none versus none being profitable as N approached infinity and the former would be greater than the later. My coming of age as a trader sprungâ¦. The universal âthis is how it isâ, I am telling you paragraph â¦.if the answers to the questions were correct, and if correct exactly how correct? The essential questions follow. 1) What is my edge? I do NOT use edges. a. What events constitute an entry? Market SYNCH of the indexarb offset. b. What events constitute an exit? I do not do exits; I do reversals. c. How much money do I commit to a given entry? At market SYNCH, I go in at five times the market capacity using five partial fills. 2) Does my (1) have positive expectation? Totally, I time markets by MODE and Sentiment. My verniers of price (for effectiveness and efficiency) are leading indicators of price. a. If not, reject the edge. b. If yes, what are its characteristics and can you model the expectation as a forecast? I do not under any circumstances forecast. I trade in NOW only and all my verniers are certain as they move from the future into the NOW. This is a development of the pool extraction algorithm c. Does the forecast model fit your expectations of return versus risk? N/A, in any way whatsoever. d. If yes to c. then you have a possible tradeable (1). At all times I know that I know with certainty. My (1) is tradable all the time on any fractal in any market. 3) Is my edge performing within the forecast model parameters? My (1) takes all that is offered all the time at five times the market capacity. a. If yes, continue. âContinueâ, quaintly enough, is the routine signal I use to stay in my position segment after segment. b. If no, recast the forecast given the new data and re-ask the questions. My (1) is founded on iterative refinement which early on eliminated the concept of edges and probability replacing such with certainty and sufficiency. There are no, zero Universal âonly the above critical path works" paragraph energy should be devoted to answering these questions and nothing else matters. Everything else is waffle. Universal âMy way or the highwayâ paragraph. , be prepared to pay. I wish you good luck, not with your trading, but with your attempt to become the Universal âI told you soâ paragraph. person who can answer the above questions. My summary. The Qâs are ill chosen as an induction of âthis is what it isâ. It isnât that way for people who use the null hypothesis and science to determine how to take what the market offers. A possible mode of inquiry would be to examine several Qâs in their relative order of importance all based on a specific topic: Making the money that is offered. This is your thread and I do not wish to take it over in any way whatsoever.
the price only goes up or down. investors generally own all sectors in the market. so if investors sell ALL sectors/markets go down. oil and commodities are the only sectors still holding out due to 2% interest rate. Bernanke would be remembered as the idiot FED chairman who doubled the price of oil in an attempt to save failing banks by lowering interest rates from 4% to 2% who overleveraged and too many risk in bad loans who should just file for chapter 11.
Call it an edge, strategy, method or w/e you would like to call it. I consider an edge a tradable strategy based on a certain timeframe in the market that i have discovered based on my study of the market. Some people who disagree with this claim that there are tons of different buyers and sellers and that every way to make money in the stock market is the same. These are the people that have never gotten past their elementary typical day trading indicators. They have no ability whatsoever to understand that different strategies are needed during different times of days, that stocks have their own personalities and that finding the highest gaining strategies that have the most reliability and probability will make the most money. Unfortunately people do not have the time or money to put the amount of time in the market needed to form this type of mindset or knowledge which in turn causes me to get naucious everytime i read the majority of posts on any random thread on this damn site.