Beer & Options Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by beerntrading, May 9, 2017.

  1. Out of NFLX for .50 for a 72% loss (that's nowhere near as bad as it sounds because it's about 1/6 the size of a normal position).
    Just waiting and watching AAPL right now to close out the week.
     
    #131     Jun 21, 2017
  2. Out of AAPL at .31 for a 1% gain, and flat for the week.

    Overall this week, up 12%; and up 46% since the beginning of June when I changed my hedge positions to net long.

    An interesting week this week. First the against the market test I did between Friday and Monday (mercifully letting me out early) that I've spoken of previously. Since opening positions on Monday, the S&P moved against me (but with my SPX hedge), while my core positions held flat. So about 7/8 of profit this week came from the hedges.

    I originally started this options strategy to remove subjectivity from any decisions to close a position. But the subjective decisions has made the last three weeks very profitable. We have yet to see how this week would shake out without my intevention, but I'm not about to complain about 12% (or, if you include my test, 8% since last Friday). As it stands, I'm confident to take this strategy live with account values that would actually hurt for a loss, in that I'm prepared to take the chances of the 30-40% draw down that's likely if it hits the fan, in exchange for scaling up these winners 10-fold or more. That said, I lack the actual cash on hand to put into this (likely until October).

    As I've outlined some time ago (like first couple pages of the thread), stepping up the at-risk money will be slow process capped off at the lesser of prior week's gains or 8% per week. The point of this is to manage risk across time, because a 30% draw down on a compounded account on the week after a 36% gain is effectively a 41% loss against starting value, or a 5% total loss since inception. The 8% is my (somewhat subjective) projection for what this strategy should average. This won't totally mitigate the risks of compounding, but it will help dramatically.

    So pleased with this month so far.
     
    #132     Jun 21, 2017
  3. And open for next week (all 6/30 Expiry, all put spreads):
    CMG 415-417.50 for .96 credit
    EA 111-112 for .29 credit
    GPS 21.50-22 for .20 credit
    NVDA 155-157.50 for .88 credit
    PM 119-120 for .34 credit
    WYNN 134-135 for .28 credit

    Hedges:
    SPX 2420-2430 for 2.20 debit
    TGT 49-50.50 for .44 debit

    And looking for one more hedge (specifically to offset NVDA and EA).
     
    #133     Jun 22, 2017
    vanzandt likes this.
  4. And ADBE 141-143 for a .58 debit
     
    #134     Jun 22, 2017
  5. Damn it. Just realized I overlooked the GPS dividend next Friday...no wonder that position looked so good.

    I didn't see much in the way of signals today, and had to dig deep into my second string list to find enough positions (only NVDA, PM, and TGT are on my normal radar).
     
    #135     Jun 22, 2017
  6. Out of NVDA at 1.25, 26% loss
     
    #136     Jun 23, 2017
  7. I flattened out ADBE and EA as well--I got out of balance from a risk management standpoint:

    ADBE out at .34 for a 48% loss.
    EA out at .41 for a 21% loss.

    And gone are the profits from Wednesday.
     
    #137     Jun 23, 2017
  8. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Risk Management :D

    Untitled.jpg
     
    #138     Jun 23, 2017
    beerntrading likes this.
  9. I'm honestly getting a little jittery. I like my winning weeks to be broken up by small losses. I feel the world is out of balance when I get it right three weeks in a row and retribution will be swift and merciless.
     
    #139     Jun 23, 2017
  10. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Every day is a new beginning. Completely lobotomize the last three weeks. You only have whats in front of you. Trade like its your first day ever. ;)
     
    #140     Jun 23, 2017