Reading all the input of the many subscribers to this thread I notice an extreme gap in the expectation of future trading profits. That ranges from resting slightly profitable (0-1% profit per year) over consistent profitability (2-15%) up to doubling or multiplying the account. Every trader needs to find his "slot" of staying in the game - the winner takes it all. But for a beginner with no live trading experience we must admit that the way to a good trader with good results or further with excellent results is going to lead over several mountain peaks and is much longer than most of the marketing profs of the aggressive brokers today makes us believe. The longest journey begins with the first step! TheFinder
Probably because the other 4% either start up or get hired. Seen another way, they probably do not trade like the small trader to begin with. The difference being professionalism and low risk behavior.
sdd80, I have to say that you have received really great advice in this thread, in particular from Zen Student and ScoobyStoo. You can`t go wrong if you approach it like they recommend. The first thing about trading is that people greatly underestimate what it takes and believe that they can consistently make money after reading a few books from Amazon and simulator trading for a few weeks. The truth is that it is a long and tedious process and compared to a formal education in any other profession, you do not have a clear cut curriculum to study and follow as you progress. This means that you risk putting in immense effort on studying stuff that you later deem useless. I have read over 100 trading books and I can assure you that most of it was not worth the paper it was written on, but it was still part of the experience I had to go through on my own without a mentor. And then after actually finding a methodology that resonates with me, there was and still is very much work to be done. I don`t know if you are considering any other career prospects other than trading or how difficult it would be to get your job back. How many hours can you devote to trading studies at this point while still maintaining your job? To me, it sounds more reasonable that you start on your studies first and then you will know when it makes sense to actually quit. When you start out, $10-20K is more than enough to fund an account if you decide to trade futures. If you need more advice as you progress, I`m sure people here will help you out. Good "luck"!
....................................... Zenster calls a grease trade. "obviously it is going up.........." a congratulatory nod is in order from one professional to......... elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=235578&perpage=6&pagenumber=22 putting the rubber boots on. s
Clearly Zen Student knows what he is talking about, but I disagree with his viewpoint on the emotional side of trading. Trading inevitably means acting upon imperfect information and taking uncertain amounts of risk. It doesn't matter how quantitative your model is, or how robust your results are. Unless you can automate the actual execution of the trades (doubtful), the emotional element matters. Even if you can stay perfectly disciplined (adhering to stops, etc), psychology comes into play in at least 2 ways: 1) Trading is stressful. You might have a system that reliably wins 60% of the time, and is thus profitable in the long run, but the bumps and bruises along the way might be too much to handle. If market conditions change for a sustained period, you might lose confidence in your model. 2) Trading can be tedious. If you've reached the point where you're eking out a living exploiting some marginal inefficiency, the whole enterprise can start to seem shallow and dull. It risks becoming a chore, not unlike your dreaded consulting career. Clearly trading isn't for everyone, but different aspects of trading appeal to different people. Personally, I get the most enjoyment out of finding an edge and besting the competition. It's the discovery of a profitable trade/algorithm that gets me going. But even though I'm genuinely passionate about the markets, I'm still susceptible to points 1) and 2) from above. The OP has barely entered the idea-generating stage. He thinks he's passionate but until he starts using real money and going through the motions of trading for a living, he won't know if he can handle it psychologically. It is rarely as simple as 'discover edge->profit->lever up->profit more'. I'm not, however, suggesting he start live trading before he's found an edge. I'm just doing justice to the point that emotions DO come into play. To the OP: how do you feel about playing poker? Does grinding out a profit for 14 hours straight in a vegas casino playing limit hold 'em sound enthralling? The skills and temperament of a successful poker player translate surprisingly well to the realm of trading.
Zen meister berates a trader in this thread. lets see what the " best and brightest Z man " can achieve. ................................. Zenster " long position update " running naked, without a stop. hard to do with his one up leg chewed off. reminds me of a " one legged man trade" ................................ a shop full pull to the 5.7 exit door. trend is down. lets reflect on that... s
I'll tell you from personal experience that getting to $1M/yr level is much easier than maintaining the $1M/yr level. Edges DO NOT last forever and finding the next great edge can be a monumental task. There are very few professions where you can achieve and maintain a high level of income. Movies stars, professional athletes, rock stars etc., most have a few good years and then are never able to attain that level of success again. With trading there's also the risk that your profession can be legislated or taxed out of existence e.g. the Financial Transaction Tax. If you really have a job where you can be making $1M/yr in 10 years then I would advise keeping it!
an advice from someone who is struggling like me could be aslo worth reading: It took me 4 years and the loss of all my savings (400k) to just understand what are the things that one should not do and to understand that one should not trade with real money untill he has found something that works on the simulator (which is imo the only way to controll emotions when trading live with real money), I don't know how long it will take now to understand the markets and find an edge and build a method that I can test on sim. so far trading has really destroyed my life, and I have to say that at this point I keep on trying just because I don't have any alternatives, and overall I have a passion for the markets so I have no problem to work hard. I think that you should sim trade and not put any money in a live account, because once you will lose your first 10k (and you will lose them very fast) you will feel the need to recover and you will lose much more, also you will not fucos on studying because the only thing that you will have in mind is to recover from your losses. Once you have something that works on sim, you should trade it with the minimum quantity, I mean 1 contract if you trade futures, because I guess it will be hard to follow the rules live anyway, especially if you did't feel the pain of breaking rules and did not lose real money before. That is the only advantage of losing money, feel the pain, once you will forget about the money you lost, you won't forget the pain, and that should help to stay disciplined and follow the system and give it the chance to prove it is real profitable.
OP - this is the best advice you have been given till now.....Much better than psycho-babble of Zenstudent and others before, just focusing on positives and assuming everything will fall in line. This advice is showing you a 'possible path' - the worst that can happen to you. This gentleman lost 400k and 4 years of his life, and he has nothing to show off now. This can happen to you also. Do not overlook this possibility. Make a conscious decision based on both positives and 'possible' negatives. This advice is asking you to focus on the negative side - the risk side. Every successful trader knows to focus on the risk side, and the rewards will take care of themselves.
if I would have read a post like mine 4 years ago, I don't know if I have had the intelligence to understand that this could happen to everybody me included, but believe me it is full of stories like mine. I'm not telling you that you should give up, I think it could be done, but you should keep your job untill you have something that really works, and in my opinion there is no logic to go live without extensive testing on the simulator. You have to consider simulation like real, if you fail with simulator, if you break the rules with simulator, you have to feel bad, you have to feel like a real loser, because if it is true that what works on sim could not work live, it is sure that what doesn't work on sim won't work on real. I was reading the thread trying to catch some suggestion from those who are profitable, the problem is that nobody will tell you what to look for with precision, they are vague, you know, observe how the market moves, understand how the market really works, translated should mean, price action and market is an auction, which is vague too, because you don't understand where to study PA (I have al brooks last book it is written very bad imo, and for me who I am not english mother tongue is a nightmare, at least if i know for sure that al brooks is a profitable trader maybe I could spend 2 years on trying understanding his book), market is an auction should be market profile or/and order flow, but I'm just guessing, anyway imagine after this 4 years and all this money how I can concentrate on PA and MP and order flow without knowing for sure that is the right path, anyway now I'm concentrating on money management that is for sure on of the key elements.