If everyone is losing day trading ES - which is the market where everyone is winning? Surely most fail at day trading whether it's ES or some other market?
Statistically, ES today is biased to close higher - net. Add to that - there's a statistical bias for a print above 90.50 by the Close. Closing below 80 would be a surprise, but nothing is ever certain in this game, so we can only place our bets and take what's offered.
I agree. So given a choice, narrow range or changing instruments, I just adjust tactics for narrow range days. I get a good daily, and higher movement days get more. Seems like a good compromise: reliability-consistency for less P/L volatility. (Sharpe) Some can switch index futures instruments and do well across them all, YM, TN, NQ. I used to trade YM, TN and NQ, while doing ES. Then just TN (smooth but too early an open), then just NQ (more volatile) and ES, Then YM (better spreads) and ES. More RELIABLE profits just doing ES now.
Interesting thread. I've traded CL almost exclusively for over a decade. I'm a decent CL trader. I mostly swing trade it. But I tire of the month to month roll and the limited option liq. - only the front monthlies trade well, no diagonal opps, etc. I've recently been trading ES, because of the option liq. and massive expiries; but I've been sucking at it. I prefer NQ, but no real option liq. there. I suppose that I may have found a niche, but the eyes wander.
Dude, I admire you. I started in CL, and switched to Equity indices some years ago. I pine for the ability to roll monthly, and having a ladder TEN YEARS FORWARD ON A MONTHLY BASIS! Don't give up on CL, since that is your baby. Don't tire of it.
As foretold. And traded. I also gave a heads up in the ES journal this morning about a particular statistical bias for the last trading day in June. Looks like that turned out well. Unless you're extremely quickly in and out of the market what doesn't work well on ES is trailing stops or generally tight stops due to the choppy nature of this market. I imagine this is so because it's so heavily traded and subject to a lot of hedging activity and program trading. So, you have to work around that if you want to trade this market profitably. But it's definitely a market which have some predictability if you know what to look at (and that ain't necessarily charts). PS: I took an exit on a trailing stop as I had accumulated some size on the way up and couldn't stomach a great counter move just like the one we saw shortly after. Trading lighter volume you can usually handle some more heat. PPS: I wonder if a new month (July) will change the picture and possibly elicit a sell from these levels. We're certainly due a pullback of some sort.
I have three automated strategies that only trade MES (MES instead of ES so I can dial in position sizing). The mean reverting characteristics of MES/ES are superb.
What moves Corn is a mystery to me. Does Cattle? Sympathy with Soy? Water-weather? etc. Would have to learn it, observe it, test it, then trade it. I understand more of what moves ES. Well at least some of it.
This week is sort of strange "holiday week" with the 4th on Sunday. I would think more creep up will be a profit taking opportunity after the 4th, but still muted. Seems like a classic melt up, bias up with occasional profit taking. Also an example of trading what is given but also being macro aware.