I trade long term going by nine year cycles, doesn't mean price can't get lower than past nine years, but Sugar went before nine years which made me a hedged buyer and if you check out the monthlies, HUGE open interest expansion, so commercials are long. The "whys" I stopped trying to guesstimate long ago, some traders good at this, am not.
lol, called the recent low, per this thread: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/gimme-some-sugar.325310/