Does anybody of you known, how many trades Larry did ? Just a rough estimation would be good. I just can read his statements of his performance on his website.....
http://www.ctiming.com/TradeRecs.asp I can't remember if it was in one of his books, or a lecture I attended, but Larry Williams has pretty much revealed the techniques he used in this contest. For the bonds, he had some kind of support resistance band system where he was selling into strength and buying into weakness. Don't remember the details.
May the force be with you. It will give me great pleasure to say one day... "I know this guy from Belgium who once said, I plan to beat the incredible trading record achieved by Larry Williams next year. And you know what? He did it!" One of my favorite quotes of all time is Steven Spielberg's "I dream for a living." It all starts there my friend. Make it happen! Tony
Hi Sabena...as I said, I am glad to help you with this "mission" of yours. But to consider Larry Williams as some sort of record to beat is silly. This is like the guy who hit the basketball hoop from full court to win a $ million .....it will not likely happen again, wasn't planned, and wasn 't "repeatable" - ...(nothing against Mr. Williams...that is not my point). My point is...set a realistic goal, make enough money so you don't need to start a hedge fund (unless you want to, of course), and join the ranks of the "over achievers" in this business....you'll feel much better if you do, IMHO. (I'll settle for the Mercedes instead of the Ferrari).
Don, I haven't investigated the trades made by Larry, but I think he didn't made enough trades to exclude the luck factor. Suppose, you have 1 guy who made 10000 % with 1 trade in a year another who also made 10000 % with 100 trades and another who also made 10000 % with 1000 trades With whom you will put your money with the biggest chance that the guy was not lucky with achieving that 10000 % ?? Very easy, the last guy. That's the law of the big numbers. Larry Williams had more than average luck but the more trades you make the less luck you can have....... I will even repeat my result the next year if necessary... This game is all about probability's and I can state that I have a chance of more than 90 % to beat Larry. The standard deviation around my average is small enough to be able to make reliable extrapolation's. Someone who is familiar with statistics knowns what I am talking about.
Don, Maybe you can organize some kind of bet competition... Everybody can vote if he thinks I will make it or not. And during my trading , I think there will come a big shift in the votes....:0)) I think... Alone the fact that I say this before I start trading, should make you guys think.
Yes that it the scary thing. he lost 44% of his account from September 30 through December 31. This make the record of 10K to over 2Mil in 9 months absolutely amazing. But it also shows that the drawdown of trading this way can also ... kill you. To Larry's credit, he did go through the 1987 crash and the aftermath in his three-month drawdown time period. The crash changed a lot of the landscape and psychology - the record definitely shows that. This brings an interesting point. If Larry would have started his trading in October of that year and lost 44% in three months, would he be able to recover? I don't think luck has anything to do with his performance. This simply shows how one MAXIMIZED profits in a certain market environment and how he got kicked in the balls in the another market environment. From a mental stand point, it is not as hard to get kicked in the balls after you made lots of dough, but if you first get kicked in the balls and then you try to make a comeback, it will be a lot harder. I look at this case as a living proof to my "sweeping of the profits on a weekly basis" philosophy, and that any system's success is depended on the time of its release - or more importantly, a trader must learn to adapt to new market conditions without a major drawdown. Down 44% in 3 months is not an acceptable risk tolerance for most of us Tony
Again, this was two decades ago, and we all know the markets have changed considerably. I wish you the best in your attempt, but i am afraid my Compliance people might have heart attacks if I "booked" any bets as to the outcome. And now, thanks to Tony, you need to make 2 million in 9 months....(lol Tony ..good job!!)..... Like I said, I'm with you...but you didn't answer (that I saw) why you are waiting another year....heck the whole market situation could make it impossible to even try...with all the new products coming out, who knows how long the "game" will last...??
Tony, You say luck has nothing to do with his performance and then you say that he just started in the right envirronement. This is a "contradictio in termis", I believe. Then fact that he has never repeated his performance even close to that result, just proves that he was the right man in the right market envirronement at the right moment and that's luck for me. You can win the lotery today, try to win it again one week later, you can't, because you have to be extremely lucky. By being able to repeat your results you prove that luck is only a small factor in your results. Look at the other guy Daniel Zanger. He had the right stocks in the right market envirronement. Just look at his present results......