now hold on now Sabena, i don't go letting myself get cornholed by just anyone. at the very least you could post a photo, sweet talk me a little bit....
Ive been following this thread from the beginning and the topic is I'm sorry to say pretty lame. It reminds me of the time I used to be in kindergarten when some kids used to boast that they were gonna do this and that ... you know what I mean!! It was pretty obvious from the start that this thread was not going to get anywhere either! Darkhorse - I've read some of your previous posts you sound pretty intelligent and know your trading stuff. If this sabena bloke is blowing hot smelly air let him. If he wants to prove to us that he so great then he should post/prove to us his trading experience.. Personally if I had been in his shoes I would have made the million $ or whatever and then declared to the world. If it was *me* I probably wouldnt have ..... I am currently in the educational phase and agree 100% that trading is not about knowing probability/stats/maths etc. However I will say that knowing these things definitely gives one an edge over other people who dont. I have not traded yet but I now understand that trading is about experience. The dept I work in has many FE/quants. If trading was about maths etc then they would be the best traders. Sadly they arent and the majority are stuck in their own little merry world Regards, Splat
Ok everyone zip up your trousers for a minute. This thread is getting a bit heated. Even the usually jovial tom_p is fixin for a duel of words. Here is a formula (not the only path) for making $1,000,000 trading EMINI ES contracts over a year's time: Trade 20 EMINIS day in and day out. Average 4 points net $250 (per contract) on the ES (including drawdowns, slippage, commission, power outages, computer failures etc.). Or if you want to think about it on a weekly basis (since daily results will likely have lots of variance), net 20 ES points on 20 contracts weekly (20x20)x$50 x 50 weeks = $1,000,000. Brains from Brussels will have to start with fewer contracts with $10K in his account, so he will have to average slightly higher than 4pts net/car or trade more than 20 contracts sometime over the year. Consistency is the key to the whole operation, so the way that he handles himself when he is losing will be paramount. The above assumes 50 weeks of trading 5 days a week (which is just about 15 holiday days), so outages or inability to trade on additional days will cut into the net. Not all trading days have equal opportunities so keeping the average up will require cashing in on good trading days to offset the poor ones when there is either little liquidity or a market unfavorable to sabena's trading style. Sabena has a chance to do it if he can remain consistent and keep his head when he increases his size and starts taking larger dollar value losses and profits. The current liquidity in the ES should be more than sufficient for Trading 20-50 ES contracts, even on a very short-term basis. Whether anyone can trade that consistently over time remains to be seen though.
Ok, so how do you explain the fact that making the kind of money- or rather, annual percentage return would be more correct- that Larry Williams made, WITHOUT taking monster risks, has never been done before. Ever. By anyone. Because there was not E-mini at that time. Just a guess.
Lobster, It's not that there is a specifik treshold. As the number of contracts traded increaeses, the number of points made will be less with each contract extra. The average size at the best bid and offer was the last days around 90. If you make a trade with one contract and you make 2 points then you will make only 1.85 points with 100 contracts. The number of contracts where you dollar profit reaches a maximum is numberofcontractsmax = 150*(number of points/number of trades) - 15.7 So if your average number of points per trade is .5 then numberofcontractsmax = 60 You have to bring up the average number of points per trade to be able to trade more contracts.
Splat: No worries brother, I take this thread, and this entire board pretty much, about as seriously as I take the Pac-Man game at Pizza Hut. Givin' and gettin' a little knowledge here and there, but mostly just messin' around.
My apologies if my post offended you. When I was in 4th grade I had dreams of winning the spelling bee. But alas, my dreams went unfulfilled so I guess I had an uncontrollable urge to spell it out.
I personally do not dream about turning $10,000 into 1M in a year. The argument is whether it's possible or not. Reason: Sabena has a chance to do it if he can remain consistent and keep his head when he increases his size and starts taking larger dollar value losses and profits. The current liquidity in the ES should be more than sufficient for Trading 20-50 ES contracts, even on a very short-term basis. Whether anyone can trade that consistently over time remains to be seen though. That's a huge problem!
Thats my goal precisely, not worried about the shape of an equity curve only profit. No need to compound, satisfied with declining % risked currently trading 40eminiSnP at a pop 40 emini=$500/tick, $2000/point 2.5points=5K, usually can be made in less than 15-20minutes 5K*200 trading days =1Million okay I've got my silver suit on now!