I have a $100,000 IRA and am thinking of buying a SPY or QQQ with it and just hold on to it for years. Doe's anyone have a simple system for the market that beats buy and hold? Not intraday but trading at the close. This can be fundalmental "PE ratios, Dividend vs Bond interest, etc." or technical "Breakouts, Moving Average, ect.". I've looked for such a system for many years but unsucessfully. Some things work for a short time period, but not over a 50 year span. Any ideas whould be appreciated, thanks. JJ
A simple system that consistently beats the market over the long term would probably be difficult to find. And if someone had a simple successful system they would probably keep it to themselves and grow rich. I am in the same boat though, I would like to actively trade my retirement account instead of doing buy and hold but have not found any consistent way to do this.
I really don't want to give out any secrets, but since you ask. GEt the book "the hedge fund edge" by Mark Boucher. It's full of very good long term SP systems with very good performance characteristics. I've traded similar stuff since 1997 with my investments and have beaten the S&P every year. with an IRA you don't have to worry about cap gains, so that's even better.
I guess i forgot the smilie Boucher's methodology is the only one I've found the appears to actually work. While I don't trade any of his systems, the ideas are close to what I do and have had success with.
This approach has beaten the market by a fair bit for some time, and will likely continue to do so. www.dogsofthedow.com Several improvements to the basic idea are outlined in a Motley Fool book called the Unemotional Investor.
Vikana; I assume this book is about trading the index's, as I want to only trade the SPY or QQQ's. In lieu of going short I could BUY bonds. JJ
This may not be exactly what you're looking for, but it appears to be viable. Jay Kaeppel has published 2 or 3 articles on trading Fidelity Sector Funds in the magazine "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities". The results look impressive. You may be able to adapt to ETF's, or HLDRS, or iShares. Go to this site and do a search of "kaeppel" and you will get a bunch of hits, just scroll through them and you will see the article. I think there is a small fee if you're not a subscriber. http://www.traders.com/
it actually covers the entire investment spectrum, but in particular has good models for S&P, NDX, bonds, gold and a good seciton on asset allocation across asset classes.