from today on, i will not post scalp or scratch, only those trades which have more than 50 ticks gain/loss on crude/natural gas/equity stock index. I found my most winners/losers are around 5 ticks to 30ticks, it is meaningless to intra-day swing trading. I am trying to realize intra-day swing (daily major move), but I found I could not afford to do that because of my account size and psychology.
account advanced to 6311.87 change : 215.5 change %: 3.5% did lots of scalpings on crude, I was trying hard to make some money before natural gas inventory data. almost bought crude around the LOD, gained 0.2 point. traded NQ, it is kind of feeling an idiot. bought NQ in the morning dip and made a good profit, then shorted it in the wrong thrust, and gave back and more. shorted natural gas after the report, saw more than $500 profit, did not take it and forced to cover it before it retraced back, gained 5 ticks. I was too bearish on natural gas, did not follow the chart and followed my bearish thoughts (judge it will go down to 3.8 under). glad, did not turn a winner into a loser.
account dropped to 5848.37 change 463.5) change% 7.3) terrible day, I should walk away when lots of conflicts around me. my son did not want to go to daycare today, I saw crude was bearish, shorted it in the opening, but my son kept bugging me in the opening, cutting loss three times, down 0.4 point on crude. then started to do lots of meaningless scalping, try to get back, do did get over it about 0.3 point. but still kept doing, try to make more money on crude, shorted it several times, but in wrong time, cut loss, and gave back. terrible. lesson, when time squeezed, do not trade. I must tell myself over and over!
from next week, I will do paper trading to practice entry/exit with hard stop loss, drills on market condition assessment. my main focus is on crude and natural gas. until I get used to hard stop, consistent with entry/holding /exit. the only way to beat the market is in the market, but the market really produces lots of confusion signals to me, it is really hard to stay in the market. at this morning opening, I was bearish on crude, shorted it just in the opening, saw immediately red, cut loss, then I saw a down tick, shorted it again, saw red again, cut loss again, then in the next down tick, I reversed my view to buy, saw red again, cut loss ... after three tries, I was totally wounded by those little dancing ticks (about 10 ticks~20ticks move) 0.3+ point +fee(0.4point) is gone, plus my son kept bugging me, made me want to make money back quick, because of this bad start, I become cynic, I start to copy the random market behaviors, ignore setups and the big pictures, buy on the down ticks and short the up ticks, it worked well a while, I almost recouped all the opening loss, then wanted to keep this game on, stepped into breakdown tick, immediately stopped out, then lost mind, shorted it in the thrust down, oops again, saw red, and hold on, 0.3 point is lost, unhappy about this, and tried another time, got the worst results, down to 0.5 point in a day, never happened to me this year. in the final closing hour,I saw the 84.5 breakup trade, fundamentally totally sound (closing short covering rally), but I hesitated, let it go without me, just damned it! I identified lots of inconsistency in today's trading. I changed my trading strategies back and forth, could not face loss, let the loss/profit control my trading! in my paper trading, I will post my trading plan before the opening to make myself trade consistently
my trading vehicles are: QG $12.5 per tick, loss per trade is 8 ticks or $0.040, gain per trade is 16 ticks or $0.080 QM $12.5 per tick, loss per trade is 8 ticks or $0.2, gain per trade is 16 ticks or $0.4 individual stocks with news, loss per trade is $100, gain per trade is $200, adjust the size based on the volatility and the stock price accordingly. I found I could not tolerate $0.010+ move for NG, $0.1+ move on CL because of my account size. while so far, in order to time my trade in so accurate level is hard to me(most time I am right in the big direction, but I am wrong in the fine level direction) I decided to only trade QG/QM to give more volatility room (i.e., more time to filter out market little dancing ticks) while still maintain the same risk level. only after my timing accuracy reaches the above fine level and my account size grows to a level at which I am comfortable with $200+ loss per trade, I will increase size to a full contract. in order to improve my timing accuracy, I will only trade with a sound fundamental reason (obvious inbalance between sellers and buyers) and a clear strong technical setup. I will try not to trade breakout in QG/QM because of large slippage in QG/QM (I should be pro-active before the breakout), avoid the AH session opening/closing (the most uncontrollable or the most possible slippage time),if I do trade, I only trade the most impossible i.e. the slippage itself, not technical setup. when I trade, I need a piece of paper and a clock, write down when I enter my trade, for what reason (technical setup, fundamental reason), where my stop is and my profit target. after a trade is done, I am not allowed to take another trade just in the same direction because I feel there is still money left on the table, I must wait at least 30minutes to resume another same direction trade to avoid revenge trading, fighting with the market. I am allowed to enter anti-direction trade immediately after I cut loss or book profit since in either case my original idea becomes invalid.
the above plan and rules seem to most people are very sound and reasonable. but I noticed a question in my own plan and rules. when I give the market more volatility room, in another word, more time to prove my trading idea, the underlying is suppose I am right most time in the big picture, so I can progress to be profitable, am I? actually see the big picture ahead is even harder to most people, me too, particularly to beginners, while to see next tick or next minute move is relatively easier. often we see the big picture after the market closed, realized this is a trending day or range-bound day, or a totally pointless random day, but it is too late. so I think I will be still back and forth between plans and rules, but one thing I must keep mind is I only care about making money. whatever works for me so far is still my total. keep a balance between skill improvement and money making. when I make money, I use it to advance my skill. when my skill is not good enough, then just use my most skillful skill to make money. make it a positive cycle, put me in win money, improve skill and improved skill to win more money poistive cycle.
Forgive me if I'm particularly slow but it appears you think the future is quite predictable are you sure that is accurate vs wishful thinking? 1) If I understand what you are saying the problem I see is the time period before you place your trade is not proving your idea right or wrong. IOW the only thing that proves the correctness of your idea is after you place your trade. 2) &4) Predicting the future accurately is quite difficult beforehand but a no brainer after the fact. 3) Are you really sure you can predict the near future with any accuracy beyond chance?
whether near-term (next tick) or a little bit farther term (next 10 minutes or next day), prediction is hard, it is basically not pretictble, but the odd or the probability of the future things can be determined beforehand, you can not predict what will happen, but you can know what the probability of that thing happens before it really happens under what conditions. you know there is three possible tick move of the next tick, up, down, not move. so the odd is 33.33%. under some conditions, for example, a double top or a double bottom, prediction of topping /bottoming odd is higher than 33.33%. if you grasp those higher odd trade, you are on the winning side, just like the casino machine. I am not stick with prediction of what will happen, I am interested in the odd. if the chart is pointing toward up, then the odd of next move UP is higher than 33.33%. most people are obsessed with predication, they are trapped for the holy grail. that is wrong. I tell myself. I do what I should do, not wait for the exact (there is no such things). I bet, I may not win anything even lose. but if I do not bet because I have not found a perfect trading system yet, definitely I will make nothing. flip another side, that means whether I have an perfect system or perfect trading plan or not, I will do it using them anyway even an inperfect system full of flaws.
account advanced to $6036.39 change : $188.02 trades : 4 trade 1 QM Long duration 11' $108.38 (exact timing, hit target, left two ticks on table) trade 2 QM long duration 3' $45.88 (a little bit early, temporarily down 2ticks, booked profit too early, left 0.2 point on table) trade 3 QM short duration 9' $-91.62 (timing accuracy -0.25 point, it is an either or trade, two ways -0.25 point, timing wrong) trade 4 CL short duration 3' $125.38 (timing exactly, no temporary down tick, entry accuracy -0.03 point, did not book profit according to the plan, left table $0.37 point) those trades are all live trades. I do not want to waste time on paper trading. I just use paper account to get myself familar with the TWS trading platform (such as stop loss slippage study, practice fast order enter etc.) I identified trading inconsistency in entry(too early, not patient)/holding(affected by former experience created fear)/exit (book profit too early, afraid of profit vaporization). I will keep working on those until I consistently follow what I should do. my next aim is: 1.improve my entry timing accuracy to within 10 ticks 2. hold until the stop loss get shit or my profit target gets hit
gained $1615.75 afternoon I decided to do some paper trading. the results are amazing, I can ride the wave without any hesitation, struggle and fear and greed! kind of a paradox. crude trended down nicely after it broken morning trendline at 85.2 (noon), I hesitated to ride it and take excuse to prepare lunch. but I bought AIG (1000lot)in my paper account, put a stop, then left the market, the market reached my target 41.8+, I got out. very beautiful. NG (1lot), went long before the closing.