Bear's Trade Summary from Today

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spectra, Feb 22, 2007.

  1. February 22, 2007 Thur Morning Session from

    We started the day with a 9 point gap up on the YM (Dow e-mini) at the 9:30 AM EST open. The first trading signal issued for the day was a gap trade. Gap trades have inherently more risk, as the stop level used is a lot wider. Some gap players do not use a point stop but rather will close their trade out on the close (a time stop). This is what Alex warned us he was doing and the short signal was issued at 9:32:55 AM EST where the time and sales were showing 12775. A scale-in point was specified for 12778 and the scale-out points (profit takwere specified for 12769 and 12765. Both of Alex’s personal account trade targets were hit as the daily YM pivot level of 12761 was tagged and tested from above. Some room members did take the signal (per room members’ posts sharing their profitability) and got between +6-11 points on the trade. The gap fill level of 12758 (yesterday’s close/settlement price) was just a few ticks under the daily YM pivot level of 12761 and was just shy of filling on the test down to the daily pivot (at about 9:45 AM EST). Our first Official Room Call signal was a MaxSpan short issued at 10:18:06 AM EST from an entry price of 12749. MaxSpan hit its target 1 of +10 and had a monster trailing contracts gain of +64 points. Our second Official Room Call trigger signal was a buy issued at 10:53:07 AM EST where the time and sales were showing 12745 with a stop specified of 12726 and instructions given to try for a lower limit order fill of 12740 as the add (scale-in) point. The signal did reach its +5 first target per observation of the time and sales. Actual profitability levels as reported by room members ranged between +5-8 points. Our third Official Room Call signal for the morning was a trigger buy signal issued at 11:24:35 AM where the time and sales were showing 12696. The stop given was 12682. A “new traders suggest exit balance at market” signal was given at 11:25:11 AM EST where the time and sales were showing 12701, which allowed the signal to reach its +5 first target. Room members reported profitability levels ranging from +2-6 points with most getting +5.

    Of note is that although the filters started out positive, they became bearish as both the daily pivot level and 15 minute opening range low both cracked at about 10:15 AM EST. The 15 minute opening range low was at 12760, just a tick below the daily pivot level of 12761. The only level of support below was the gap close level of 12758 which offered little support on gap fill. When the gap fills, it has the tendency to behave as a pivot. Although at 10:15 AM EST (the aproximate time where both the daily pivot and 15 minute opening range low had both been penetrated) the advancers-decliners were still positive, the slope of the trend on the advancers-decliners plot, which had peaked out at 9:55 AM EST with a closing 1 minute bar level of 702, was sharply down. At approximately 10:19 AM EST the advancers-decliners first went below 0 and we had a 3 minute candle close below the gap close level. Maxspan had fired short a minute before the advancers-decliners had gone in to negative territory. The advancers-decliners turning negative also corresponded to new lows for the day as the previous advancers-decliiners low was roughly 72. Even if you do not trade the MaxSpan setup, MaxSpan can still be used as a strong indicator for bullishness or bearishness and give clues as to which direction the market wants to go. The market proceded to dump off until the 12666 low of the day was reached for the YM at 11:36 AM EST. Overall, it was a superb morning for us as all three Official Room Call signals were profitable.