Bears Exceed Bulls by Most in 17 Years, Investor Poll Says

Exactly. Anyone who doesn't understand this, seriously, needs to study sentiment logic.

Pull up consumer confidence during katrina, and you'll begin to understand why it's massive money that moves the markets, not the "masses."

 

They got 200 responses, who cares. They might as well have conducted the poll here at ET.

 

Longer term (2 year time horizon, a la Security Analysis) you'd have to be nuts to be bearish, if you know what moves the markets.
The range in which the markets have moved in the past year is exceptionally narrow, and that's almost always bullish. If it happens when sentiment is as awful as it is right now, it's pretty much a slam dunk (with apologies to George Tenet).
As for shorter time horizons, the only real thing it's telling you is that volatility, on both sides, is going to rise significantly, but you have to be very careful what you short, should you decide to go that route. The time to short with impunity is gone.

 

one of the lessons you learn is shorting equities at the bottom of their ATR is suicidal, especially 19 days before a FED meeting.

the bet portfolio managers will make is that equities will try to resume their upswing at the later part of the year since historically with the start of FED easing it takes about a year for the effects to be noticed.

managers will frontrun, so if people are looking to go long, the summer will be exceptionally nice. The market will be run up and then evidence will be sought that the economy is truely turning around.

if numbers come in weak at the end of summer then the fall will have another downleg.

 

Exactly, these contrarian polls are worthless now, comedy even. I see a different one stating the opposite result almost weekly.

 

What a joke, and the 200 were probably data mined so they could create such a 'scary' headline

 

37 Tips, Facts, and Rules For Trading Stocks in a Bear Market


IMPORTANT Risk Disclaimer :

A "naked" or uncovered writer of a call option is at substantial risk should the value of the underlying stock move unfavorably against the position. For a naked call writer, the risk of loss is theoretically unlimited. The obligation of a naked writer that is not secured by cash to meet applicable margin requirements creates additional risks. A harsh adverse move in stock prices can create steep margin call scenarios in which a brokerage firm may liquidate other holdings in the writer's account(s) to cover the option. Since pricing of options tends to be magnified relative to the underlying stock, the naked writer may be at significantly greater risk than a short seller of the underlying stock.

1. Sell everything by moving to 100% Cash.
2. If buying on breakouts, take any profits quickly.
3. The biggest black bear ever found was 880 pounds.
4. Don’t trust ratings systems, in a bear market almost everything is free game for failure.
5. Sell all of your mutual funds.
6. Don’t buy any more mutual funds.
7. Don’t invest your life savings in the market than pull out Trading For Dummies and start reading from chapter 1.
8. For any new positions on the buy side, use tight stops of 2 - 4% max versus a 7 or 8% standard during a regular market.
9. Bears have smelling capabilities far greater than humans. Some bears have a nasal mucosa area about 100 larger than in humans.
10. Don’t buy into analyst recommendations.
11. For bigger single day moves of 5% or greater, take profits the day of or the day after and walk away.
12. No one is your friend. You are your own friend, trust only yourself.
13. Take positions in larger defensive stocks with a high yield.
14. Buy ETFs that are short the overall market, QID for example.
15. Don’t play the, “I have a feeling the market is done selling” game and try to catch the bottom.
16. Remove any margined positions.
17. Don’t buy any more positions on margin.
18. Don’t take Nyquil after being on Vikatan, a buddy of mine did it in college, it is only funny for the first 30 minutes.
19. A good lean bear can run at speeds in excees of 30 mph.
20. Three heavy distribution days in a row for the market means go away.
21. Three heavy accumulation days in a row for the market during a bear market means enter with extreme caution, not jump right in.
22. When everyone realizes the market is crap and the day comes that even CNBC is saying the market is in a bear, that is the time to start looking for buying opportunities.
23. An option in Wall Street terms is not the same as in football.
24. It is a fact that three out of four stocks follow the overall market trend.
25. Hedge your risk by buying options.
26. If your broker can’t send over a list of all of your current positions and tell you your exact account status he shouldn’t be your broker.
27. Some bears will hibernate for over 7 months of the year.
28. If you are new trader, understand this is not the time to be getting your feet wet to “see what happens”. Being on the sidelines for a few more months won’t kill you.
29. A profit is a profit regardless of how small.
30. After ten consecutive heavy sell off days in a row, go down to Wall Street on the first up day and yell with arms flailing, “The bull is back, the bull is back!!” I guarantee you will drive buying and help a few hundred more people lose even more money over the next few weeks.
31. It is a fact that during the 2000 - 2002 crash the whole way down analysts were making more 10x more buy recommendations than sell recommendations on stocks.
32. The bigger your ego before the bear market, the greater the fall during the bear market.
33. Bears are good swimmers, one recorded swim was for more than 9 miles in the Gulf of Mexico.
34. During the 2000-2002 crash multi millionaires were made by selling stocks short on weakness.
35. In case you were confused about 24, this means that every day the market ends red, 3 out of 4 stocks close in the red as well.
36. Typically the biggest market leaders during a bull market are some of the biggest sellers during a bear market.
37. If you ever are attacked by a bear, your best chance for survival is to play dead.

 

For Grizzlies, this is true. For black bears, it is not.

 

Timothy Treadwell and his companion were lunch for a brown bear.