Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Roman Candle, May 1, 2009.
Bears are powerless right now, they can't get any follow thru.
can someone please explain in laymans terms why when one side of a trade gets crowded it never works... i keep hearing this and thinking about it... the whole "whats obvious is obviously wrong" and i'm applying it to the situation we have now.
We know we are still deep in the woods, and we should be going down, and most people should have a downward bias, however that is not the case?, To me it seems if "one" side of a trade gets "crowded" as in now everyone expecting down shouldn't that just make the ensueing move exacerbated? as in a mini crash or veyr violent move downwards? somehow i cannot garner how it is working now.... are ppl just shorting and covering too quickly and thats why we are failing to put pressure on the downside?
I can see how we might have one more "thrust" upwards caused by current short covering and then finally everyone agreeing we are too high and then proceeding to lower levels, but why is this last "thrust" necessary... how is it any different if the next leg down started from here instead of 100 points above us?
please do no explain using analogies like gravity and how it falls harder if it has more height or w/e just regular market terms will do i just want to try and understand this.
input would be appreciated.
have you been around for the last 3 months? maybe you didn't see the market go from 6500 to 8200.
I did. I was long calls, doubled my money, got out. Where were you?
That's why bulls are exhausted.
F 5/ 1 873.80
T 4/30 872.81 1.48BLN
W 4/29 873.64 1.20BLN
Would you believe that there was a FOMC meeting and month end rebalance in between?
Thank all the green shoot comments drawing in the dumb money without actually looking and the economic data.
The media is picking out anything remotely positive in ANY report and spinning it to be the best thing ever. That is drawing in public money at a surprising rate. At some point the market won't jump on bad news and we will retest the lows.
WE HAVE TO RETEST THE LOWS!!
I am in the short calls short put camp with riskfreetrading (I believe).
Weekly chart Dow futures... alot of nothing.
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