Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, May 22, 2022.

  1. ET180

    ET180

    Or trade option spreads. Go counter trend on extreme moves only and keep size very light.
     
    #31     May 23, 2022
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Hey, all things being equal, I'd agree in a heartbeat, but things aren't what they were 5 months ago, not even close.

    Everything has changed, and it appears to be getting worse. That's why I said the level has reset. No Nostradamus required. You just don't fight the Fed, ignore an impending recession, and last but not least, ignore the very real possibility of $8/gallon unleaded and $10/gallon diesel.

    Other than that... yes, these algo's fight each other on the way up the same way they do on the way down. It's just every now and then my "billionaire buddies" need to reposition the battleground a little. This is one of those times.

    That said, if we get anywhere's close to the all-time highs... by all means... feel free to revive away and I'll eat my hat. Unless Putin dies. Then all bets off. But sell that news too... about 3-4 days after it happens.
     
    #32     May 23, 2022
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  3. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Fair response, though Putin has little to do with this. Energy prices were already soaring for a little over a year before Russia-Ukraine started. Cancelling pipelines, not renewing oil/gas leases and other forms of domestic energy terrorism have consequences.
     
    #33     May 23, 2022
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  4. zdreg

    zdreg

    If you flip a coin 7 heads in a row does that change the odds on the 8th flip? Only amateurish thinking would think it does.
     
    #34     May 23, 2022
  5. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    cant sleep, would b epic if SPY keeps dropping :)

    spy23may.jpg
     
    #35     May 23, 2022
  6. nitrene

    nitrene

    NQ just lost 170 points in a little over 2 hours. Below 11850 means down to 11640.

    I still don't know who would buy this overnight. Its not like the Asian markets were doing that well overnight. June K200 was up 0.23%, N225 is down so is the HSI.
     
    #36     May 23, 2022
  7. Look at the VIX on daily time frame for past 4 weeks.

     
    #37     May 23, 2022
    KCalhoun likes this.
  8. Other than short-term trades... 3 major reasons to own equities.

    1. Favorable P/E (value)
    2. Expected growth... economic outlook supports
    3. Fed juicing

    None of those on the front burner at this time...
     
    #38     May 23, 2022
    vanzandt likes this.
  9. 5/23/22....what a beautiful day to short the stonk market today!
     
    #39     May 23, 2022
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. xandman

    xandman

    Interesting thread. I am seeing ET vets focus on a narrow time frame, collectively. No butting heads on direction, though.

    Are we about to get a massive break out? There is a group think convergence going on. May have to cut out ET for a few days.
     
    #40     May 23, 2022
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