Bear Rally/Short Squeeze

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 4444CJones4444, Feb 6, 2009.

  1. We lost almost 600K jobs today, and the market rallies in response (on top of yesterday's rally). The way I look at it, in current market conditions, the bigger the rally, the bigger the fall. If the SPX gains another 5% This Monday and Tuesday, watch out below. It will rubber band its way down hard.

    On a side note, I read an article on Bloomberg today. The author explained today's rally on top of the brutal jobless claim number was due to the fact that NOW the government is forced to pass a stimulus bill (and the market liked that), as if it wasn't a foregone conclusion since before Obama even took office.

    If the market went down today, the very same author would have told us the jobless claim has the market running for cover, there's blood in the streets. I swear Finance journalist will just pick a market mover out of their ass and run with it.
  2. I swear they make that stuff up.

    My favorite is "The market went up today because investors thought blah blah blah..."

    I'm an investor, they never ask me.

    Always good for a laugh.
  3. Mario66


    Im going short all week. What goes up must come down these days.
  4. From 1981:
    Some things never change.
  5. :D That sounds about right.
  6. buy all you can. .
  7. ====================
    Maybe true;
    still in a bear market. Big banks still look weak....................

    However DEC DIA, SPY,QQQQ made a higher low;
    & higher lows, higher highs in JAN. Bear is old in non financials

    Oil spikes /big gasoline / oil up-trends could easily start another bear market:cool:
  8. The biggest components of the S&P are the Financial, Energy and Healthcare sectors.

    I personally think these sectors are heading higher unless Financials collapse.

    fwiw...the Baltic Dry Index has gone up sharply this year, indicating increasing world demand for raw materials
  9. What's your time frame? I'm thinking short term right now, a month at the most.
  10. I saw numerous explanations on the financial channels given for why the market went up even though the jobs report was so bad:

    1. The jobs report is telling us about the past and the market is reacting to the future, which is brighter.

    2. Congress is about to pass Obama's stimulus bill, so the market is reacting to it by going up (buy the rumor, sell the fact).

    3. Congress is not about to pass Obama's stimulus bill, so the market is reacting positively to the fact the Congress is not going to intervene.

    The bottom line is that our government is running the biggest Ponzi scheme in the world. The amount of debt that our nation is creating and the interest that is acruing is not sustainable. Right now, the world is putting their money in dollars because they think that is the safest place for cash. However, as we continue to print funny money as fast as we can, people will eventually wise up and stop buying dollars. In addition, treasuries have already hit historic highs and are coming down. Eventually, if China and the oil rich nations stop buying our treasuries to float our debt, the bond market will collapse along with stocks. Enjoy the Obama rally while it lasts. Soon, you may be wishing that you had put your money in gold and silver.
    #10     Feb 7, 2009