bear on nyc, how to profit?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by newguy05, Mar 22, 2008.

  1. If you are bear on nyc area real estate, retail etc.. does anyone know a financial instrument or stock to play with? thanks
  2. man they have a futures on everything, thanks! One question on the case-shiller index as the underlying. It says:,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

    Most of the residential real estate in nyc are condos and coops, not single family home, and they are the ones i predict will have a price drop. The single family homes in nyc are mostly brownstones that some old lady lived in for the last 30 years, so i doubt there will be too many resales.

    So does that mean the case shiller index doesnt include condo sales prices? then it's pretty useless index for ny metro. Does anyone know?
  3. Those real estate contracts are useless. They only trade "by appointment". Besides, the prices for the deferred contracts are trading at a discount to the spot index. That's bad for short-sellers. You would be better off short-selling upscale retailers and REITs with exposure to NYC.
  4. thanks, but it's hard to find publically traded luxury retailers that deal exclusively in nyc. I will dig around.

    I think nyc has a way to go yet because

    1) The real estate market around here really hasnt been hit much like in ca, fl, etc..

    2) Massive layoffs on wallstreet, which drives the nyc real estate market, the trigger effect hasnt started yet.

    3) Predict yearend bonus will be bad this year, much more so than last year.

    All this points to a decline in housing prices across the ny/nj waterfront area.
  5. Maybe a market maker will sell you puts on the prime beef steakhouses that charge $45 for a filet mignon, $7 for a baked potato, and $14 for a Grey Goose martini. Other than that, there are a few listed stocks in the commercial real estate management/brokerage business.
  6. Even with the horrible spreads in the Los Angeles (LAX) real estate futures, I've managed to wait patiently and watch my shorts at 260.2 fall to 214.0 (and still dropping) for a healthy profit.

    The NY futures for some reason have a much better (smaller) spread than the other contracts. It is too bad that they will not include condos which I also agree with you, will probably fall 70% or so.