I was thinking about Aphieboy, and his adventures in Trading. Part of me wants to laugh as his lunacy, part of me feels some sympathy for him. It got me to thinking. Sure, trading is trading, and one should be able to trade in all markets. That said, we are in the midst of one of the most abnormal market periods in US history. This bear is one mother of a trader killer. I wouldn't want to be learning how to trade during this one. Like learning to surf on a Tsunami and aftershocks. No wonder newbies and rookies blow out so easily. I would advise most people to stay away from markets and learning to trade until you see gentle trending markets. While this volatility is attractive, quite a lot of it happens only on the opening or closing, and most of the day is flat. So much of the TA and trading systems people are starting out with on their new adventure in trading were developed during bull markets, not horrendous bear markets. Getting a feel for this market for a rookie? Forgetabout it. This is nuts. Freaky shit..... What do ya think?
I'm thinking ... if I can survive my first year in such a market, I will have a high probability to make it a trader.
Forgive my ignorance, as I'm an uber-newbie, but what does the over all market matter? Isn't that the point of day trading? That you don't have to worry about the macro picture? For example, if you have a trend following system set up to a 1 minute chart, then why would a bear market matter? Don't individual stocks trend up and down in both bear and bull markets? It seems to me that the longer you trading time frame, the more these crazy markets would hurt you. But if for example, you stay in a trade for an avg of 10 minutes, and you can go long/short, and you have a variety of stocks to choose from, what's the problem?
Corso there has been a lot of volatility in the market that can make even a 10 minute method look silly. Also, at times, the total lack of volatility following some gaps creates days where the entire market is nothing but churn and burn. Even the scalpers have had difficulties of late. No follow thru on moves has made this environment tough. Theoretically your conclusions are accurate. Practically, you will find it very challenging in this frothy churning directionless market. I hope not. I hope you get in there and kill 'em everyday. Best of luck.
markets used to be much more difficult, then very easy and now pretty challenging. starting now is not the best time if you need to learn unless you have enough cash. because it will be difficult to keep it. on the other hand, training with a handicap (some athletes use extra weight) will make it so easy when the markets cycle to an easy mode (and they eventually will at one point.. could be some years though. could be never, who knows.). it's a fact that the market is a trader killer at this point. frankly though, probably it's because too many try this line of work without enough professionalism. In a forgiving market it's OK. in a normal market it's not. I hope not to offend, but it's the sad truth, numbers speak for themselves. and you will see many aphies [remember the early discussions with you. you did not like it, when a bunch of the old grumpy traders warned you about precisely what eventually happened.. now you can really see we were trying to help]. but, yes, I believe that those who continue now do take this more seriously and that gives a better chance in the long run.
Well, he has a PhD so that settles it. He's got one of the three degrees required for financial commentary: BS - bullshit MS - more shit PhD - piled higher and drier