Bear Market/recession Confirmed By Fed

Discussion in 'Economics' started by EMRGLOBAL, Aug 17, 2007.

  1. Today's .50 basis point is a confirmation for me, that we are in a Recession and the the market is WEAK.

    Targeting short side, waiting for a monday rally to short into.

    Welcome to the BEAR,

    Remember, 2001-2004, all those rate cuts and the market did what? SOLD.
  2. doublea


    What about 98? We are going to see a bull market of our lifetime.
  3. 2001-2004 was the time before China started it's symbiotic relationship with the U.S. economy. If the U.S. goes down the sh!tter, so will China. Then we'll see, how stable their society actually is.

    So, it's probably easier to just print more money. Heck, the central banks aren't restricted by a gold standard anyways.

    Now that capitalism has conquered the world, markets need not be free any longer.
  4. I agree. Just a few days ago the Fed said it would take a "calamity" for them to cut rates. Now, on the heels of the Dow selling off by only a few hundred points, Ben flip-flops and does a 0.5pt cut. Instead of asserting an image of strength, the Fed appears to be joining the panic. If they would have cut 0.25pt at the next meeting, that would seem measured; but to cut 0.5pt intermeeting suggests panic at the Fed. It suggests that the credit market is truly in crisis.
  5. I agree with the first and last sentence but one day doesn't turn any market from a Bull to a Bear. This is the exact reason people say trends don't exit, they can't specifically define them.
  6. Great advice. Next week's price action is MOMBO critical in the determination of who's gonna win this game - bull or bear.
    As usual, ANYTHING can happen, but longer-term, you've got to be watching the bears as we've got a decling US dollar, tightened lending conditions, weak job market, and declining real personal income.
    These conditions do not support the current healthy PE Ratios.
  7. Goldman and Morgan likely went to Benny Boy and said you either help us or 4000 points comes off the Dow......

    an offer he couldn't refuse........
  8. I wouldn't be so anxious to short quite yet. VIX barely moved down today. I'm not sure if that's an artifact of the OE (anyone know?) but if not, it seems to indicate a bit of skepticism about this rally among the majority, and that means the fuel is nowhere near spent.
  9. +225 was fairly weak given FF showing 2 cuts coming and who knows how much injected.....

    RE has hit the wall in Texas but better than FL and CA....

    If a major credit shop goes tits up, Benny Boys panties with wad up some more....

    "The only thing we have to fear, is Cramer himself'
  10. The bear market for me started in July when internals started to fall apart.

    It doesn't transition overnight, the bear market can begin when there is still a bull market. Livermore's words, not mine.
    #10     Aug 17, 2007