Bear Market? My guess is yes...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by cszulc, Jan 23, 2008.

Are we in a bear market?

  1. Yes, we'll see a short bear market of 6-12 months

    7 vote(s)
    28.0%
  2. Yes, we'll see a bear market of 1-2 years

    7 vote(s)
    28.0%
  3. Yes, we'll see a bear market longer than 2 years and test the lows of 2002.

    5 vote(s)
    20.0%
  4. No, we're in a short term situation and will return to the bull market.

    5 vote(s)
    20.0%
  5. The Fed Will Save Us!

    1 vote(s)
    4.0%
  1. cszulc

    cszulc

    I now officially changed my views to believing we're in a bear market - even though we had a sucker's rally today.

    Maybe the Fed will deliver next week with a 50bp cut - but probably not. When markets don't rally on cheaper capital, meaning dreadful Tuesday that generally means a bad thing is going on, especially with that large of a cut. I wouldn't be surprised if we got no cut, considering the current Fed's overly cautiousness on inflation.

    Plus, add in the economic data we got coming next week. Store sales, Durable goods, and Consumer Confidence are all coming out on Tuesday, along with the FOMC annoucement and preliminary GDP due out on Tuesday. Combined with Friday's employment situation report and ISM manufacturing index, we'll probably see a down week.

    I'm thinking we might even test the lows of 2002, look at the chart.
     
  2. someone grabbed bernanke by the testicles and forced him to lower rates by 75 basis points. seriously,you don't lower rates by that big of an amount 1 week before a scheduled meeting unless we are in dire straights. which of course the market is. its not like,ok kids,the fed lowered rates,everything is now fine.
     

  3. Ban short selling like Japan and bring in that uptick rule at least and that will end these deceptive " bear markets" etc etc.
     


  4. Now you are second guessing the Feds? There has to be a dark cloud on the horizon?
     
  5. Aok

    Aok

    Just get to it and cut to ZERO percent now. Isnt going to change reality.

    Forget trading for a second. Everyday some stock is up, some stock is down.

    What really is the stock market as the rubes understand it. A transfer. Wealth for ownership. Why would you "buy" a company that you dont expect to make greater profits in the future?

    When sales decline and earnings are down, yes chicanery and outright manipulation can fool some of the people but that merely protracts the pain.

    And believe it, pain is coming. The reason is simple, even the rubes no longer believe they can "buy the dips" they're too worried about their homes being foreclosed on not to mention the real inflation costs associated with eating, heating, and meeting their docs, despite the govt telling them they can buy a Dell computer for 1/2 the $ that is twice is powerful from 5 years ago thus no real inflation.

    That wont stop Helicopter Ben from cutting now will it?

    But even the PPT cant hold back the ocean.

    See you on the downslope.
     
  6. Seriously, for the 10th time...are you related to Stock_Trad3r.
     
  7. I voted for the prolonged bear, for the record. The US has not experienced true assett deflation since the depression, which is what will be happening.