You sound a lot like that moron that goes by the name of Rcanfiel . . . If you are not, then I apologize. The bottomline is that anyone that has ever traded for a living from the floor of a commodity pit KNOWS how markets react when they catch a strong "bid" and make new highs . . . they ACCELERATE!!! This market not only failed to accelerate, it showed horrible breadth AND it proceeded to come back in below the 1540 SPX level . . . breaking 1530.80 and 1506.10 being a tremendous reflection that the uptrend was in serious question. Price is TA. Mr. Canfiel unfortunately could not get that into his thick skull.
I did start a thread back on July 9th that used Elliott Wave to come up with a projected target of the end of this 5-wave advance at 1559.09 SPX. As you all know, we got within 3.19 points of that with a print high of 1555.90 I stopped posting on the thread on Friday, July 20th because no one was really following/understanding it, as well as the unfortunate fact that the thread had also attracted some goofballs by the names of Rcanfiel and the kid that has been calling for "intermediate" tops ever since 1150 on the SPX, who goes by 16 aliases . . . from James Stock to RubberBird, to Ghostzapper. In my final post, I stated that the market needed to close back above 1540 (a week ago Friday). When it did not, I knew that the bull was in trouble. And believe it or not, TRADING to me is more important than posting on ET. There's really no need to invest a lot of time and effort educating others when all they come to ET for is to "piss" all over everyone and beat their chests like Tarzan. Not my game.
There are tons of funds that trade off of mechanical systems. The close that you saw in the last 30 minutes of trading in the S&P is pretty reflective of a marketplace that is aware of this fact, AND that such a WEEKLY close would generate a lot of sell orders come Monday morning. Moreover, who wants to be carrying inventory over the weekend with Asian and Europe open Sunday night? Not the specialists. Not any market-makers that I know of. Not any trading desks using their own proprietary money. It doesn't take much to cause the kind of price action that we saw in the final 30 minutes of Friday's trading session. It's called . . . NO BIDS.
and your elliot wave garbage qualifies as 'real' TA? its all BS ... ie natural gas goes up in September (if EW is done by your estimation) only because Aug is off the charts, and market mechanics determine that game.
Ever heard of stop running? everyone had tight stops around here, because we all universally accept support around 1460 cash on the ES. Watch the big money run the stops the other way on Monday or Tuesday with all new 'TA shorts' that entered the market on end of Friday.
Given the details outed over the past few months about how much - ah - creativity was in this market the only reasonable answer is "who the fuck knows?". I do agree with you, by the way, that someone(s) will make a killing picking up the pieces. What is difficult to know is whether that happens at 65 or 45 or 25. It will require someone willing and able to hold for a fair length of time though...
if the "carry trade" continues to get unwound next week this could also hurt attempts for equities to rally
My plan is to unwind my calls when it bounces which I think it will. Might open red Sunday night then bounce during European opening. But quite frankly, I'm just waiting for opportunity to unwind my calls and go cash all the way and scalp this market instead with 3 minute tick charts.