bear market, here we come

Discussion in 'Trading' started by krazykarl, May 17, 2006.

  1. though many of you peg me as a permabull, i am very much a trend monkey.

    this is how I see it:

    -companies were charging more for goods
    -demand did not decline. just look at oil and gas, it went up and people really didn't bitch too much, besides the requisite amount

    this thesis caused excess liquidity in the markets, as shown by the slope of the commodity charts.

    there is only one way to remove liquidity - raise interest rates.

    i would not be surprised to see 3 hikes and some pauses this year. CPI will drive the markets for the next 6 months.....

    all comments welcome.

  2. We might get a decent correction to the move up since October, but we won't get a bear market. There is too much cash out there looking for a home. You will probably see a lot of money coming out of real estate and going into the stock market.
  3. from your mouth to the market's ears....
  4. just21


    US market is strong. The dax is off nearly 8.5% since last friday.
  5. it would be interesting to see what, if any, historical trends surround global markets selling-off.
  6. Rising interests would often be a common denominator.