Bear market ahead and 14 more years of range trading? The next weeks will show!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Riskmanager, Nov 19, 2005.

  1. Good thread...thanks.. :)...I totally agree
     
    #11     Nov 22, 2005
  2. based on what?
     
    #12     Nov 22, 2005
  3. Been building a system for the Last 4 years...
    I think stay out would a better chice then Longing the dow...
    Most likley QQQQ would touch 35 area...
    I expect even Lower to 30..
    I think the rally is finished...
    But Might wanna Long nvax at MKT and LUB @ MKT...while beeing away from the dow + Nasdaq
    the risk on the upside is way Higher then the down side
    GL
    KaL
     
    #13     Nov 22, 2005
  4. That's an intersting theory, that there is no total market. I'll think that through in more depth within the coming days.
    So far, I view the markets as focal points. E.g., Gold will play an important role, once it approaches the 500 resistance.

    A few years ago, I traded a kind of intraday arbitrage strategy. I would chart DOW, S&P & NASDAQ Comp. & 100, and often would find out that they'd form technical points during similar times. E.g., a symmetrical triangle in the DOW would be accompanied by a rising triangle in the NASDAQ 100. Tests of the break out barriers would happen nearly simultaneously. If I focused on the leading index and if it broke out on strength, I had ~5-10 seconds time left to open a position in the following index. Relatively low risky trades.

    Well, a few weeks ago, I noticed that the current bull market started, when the NASDAQ broke through it's previous relative high. DOW & S&P followed with strength, but didn't offer important technical clues.

    Well, the question I ask myself is: what should fuel the next Kondratieff cycle? The past one was powered by the IT-Revolution. What are the next Microsofts, Apple's, Dell's supposed to be? Google? I don't think so.

    Well, I'll stay sceptical, but trade long&short nonetheless.

    I don't like the rising yields, and think that a slowing in US consumer spending is the biggest looming threat. And since rates are rising, I don't think this is event is impossible to happen soon.

    And here's an interesting recent analysis:
    MARKET BECOMING OVERBOUGHT IN ALL TIME FRAMES

    Cheers!
     
    #14     Nov 22, 2005
  5. i ask again. based on what?
     
    #15     Nov 22, 2005
  6. Atlantic

    Atlantic

    don't you know - this time it's different :D
     
    #16     Nov 22, 2005
  7. msft is challenging these days for me and I am Many TAs
    Weekly is a buy daily is a sell...
    I think results into side...not for too Long I think..maybe two weeks..
    I get this sometimes..sort of conflict of Waves...

    Rep: It's Based on non Linear estimation methods..
    GL
    KAL
     
    #17     Nov 22, 2005
  8. I got CSCO as sell as well..Target 14.5 with 4-5 weeks
     
    #18     Nov 22, 2005
  9. Got ebay as sell too...
    Target 30 within 5 weeks or so

    someone mentined wmt as Buy...I just don't see it that way...
    any comments please..TIA
     
    #19     Nov 22, 2005
  10. you want comments? you are dreaming.
     
    #20     Nov 22, 2005