Bear Growls...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Trend Fader, Apr 8, 2004.

  1. jrs3


    Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I hope most folks understand that this uptick in corporate profits is due to the change in the tax code, and not real demand. This rise in the market and in the economic indicators is artificial, its not coming from real demand. to much consumer debt not enough savings. Am I a bear? no! History has shown the natural tendency is for the markets to rise. But I am no bull at these levels, I remain neutral and don't expect much at all from the equity markets for some time. I can, and will wait for a buying opportunity in equities.

    The news is always the best near the top.
    #31     Apr 8, 2004
  2. Please feel free to tell us how the tax code has caused such an increase in earnings that this quarter we are seeing the largest increase in earnings ( +19% ) since the first quarter of 2000?

    At some point, corporations have to show top line growth, and not just via cutting costs and laying workers off. I'm curious, if you do not feel that the "valuation" of the S&P 500 is attractive, what do you believe that the P/E of the S&P 500 should be?
    #32     Apr 8, 2004
  3. jrs3


    Read some 10Qs or 10Ks from you favorite stock try TXN for starters. The Dollar looks to have stabilized, interest rates got only one way to go and thats up. Equities no thanks. The SP would look attractive with a PE in the teens.
    #33     Apr 8, 2004
  4. IWM sliced 115... i am starting to cover some.
    #34     Apr 15, 2004
  5. why?? why at 115? It's a 4% move. Is that your profit target? What was your risk stop? If it's 4% then the R/R is not so good.
    #35     Apr 15, 2004

  6. 115 is a good place to start to scale profits. Thats about a retracement of 2/3 of the move off the march lows.

    I dont calculate risk to reward in the sense of they way most people do... simply because I weigh each trade differently.

    To me each trade is unique and different.. therefore I use different risk parameters.

    5 point swing on the IWM is a nice trade.. regardless of what u say. Remember we are talking about an index not a stock. So 4% is a lot.

    #36     Apr 15, 2004
  7. hmmmmmmmmm....wonder what the perma-detractors have to say about this?
    #37     Apr 15, 2004
  8. Why?? why cover at 115? It's a 4% move. Is that your profit target? What was your risk stop? If it's 4% then the R/R is not so good."

    Remember, Trend Fader does not calculate "risk to reward" the way that most people do. This is mostly because he is trading with a $30,000 account, and 250 shares for 5 points is a lot of money to him - - - especially when the TREND has been UP for so long and Trend Fader is a "perma-bear" that does not know how to play the longside.

    He would rather miss out on a "painfree" super bull SPX move from 1087 to 1145 in 2 weeks, than have to play the longside of a market.

    Same old same old.
    As Misctrader so astutely pointed out, Trend Fader's "R/R is not so good." So much for the crash, and covering a fraction of his position at 115, and then the rest at 110 . . . "and I will be holding some more in case we have a market crash".

    #38     Apr 16, 2004
  9. Yes.. I might be wrong in the coming days and we may just rocket higher.. but this is not a scalp trade nor short term trade.

    My first target is a pullback to the 115 area where I will cover a fraction of my position.. then $110... and I will be holding some more in case we have a market crash.

    So much for not making a short-term trade, and holding on to a "position".

    #39     Apr 16, 2004

  10. What the hell are u talking about. U are totally wrong. I said I will cover some at 115. Not the whole position... I love the way u spin my comments to conform to your agenda.

    Anyways... keep on chearleading the markets as we top out.. similarily like u did with the homebuilders and the bond market.

    As we put in the top.. its good to know there are people like you that are willing to buy at these lofty levels.

    #40     Apr 16, 2004