Simple question - could we have a second nasty down year and end up with a 70+% peak to bottom bear market?
The simple answer is "yes". If the only government intervention was via the Federal Funds rate, then I'd say "almost certainly". However we have governments in the US and elsewhere that are willing to attempt to spend the world out of the current mess, which could result in the S&P 500 remaining above 750.
If it isn't, and you're wrong for the umpteenth time, will you promise (again) to go away and then stay away?
Of course we could. We "could" also go up 100% by mid-spring. Is that really what you're trying to ask?