Beans Ever Going Down

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by youngtrader, Aug 30, 2007.

  1. This market has run 20 cents higher from where I wanted to short it in the first place. Sold some nov at 876 and looking to sell more today. Any thoughts?
  2. You're standing in front of a freight train.
  3. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Pabst pretty much summed up exactly what I thought as you explained what you want to do. Chugga chugga choo choo. "but mr train engineer, I'm standing right here on the track, dont you see me! Stop!" Train (hauling 75 cars) Errrrrrrr...chugga chugga choo chooo...bug hits the grill....chugga chugga chugaa choo. (the bug was you)
  4. The midwest region that produces the majority of the beans has been hit with too much rain. Many of the plantings are standing water still......crop yeilds will probably be lower than expected was my take on the situation hence the run-up.

  5. Care to elaborate on the reason on shorting? And what's the trade management plan? Add as it goes up or stop at some point?
  6. If you really want to be a hero, short-sell the wheat.
  7. Wheat will eventually trade back in the 3-4 bucks level., Beans will trade back in 5-6. But u just dont know when. It could be 1 yr, it could be 5
  8. We had a better than expect progress report monday with traders expecting 2-3% decline with us coming in at a 1% increase.
    Market still seems to be trading a shitty bean crop (reminds me a lot of the corn market early in the year both technically and fundamentally) when I believe we have much more of a bean crop than what everyone thinks (at least in midwestern iowa where i am at).
    We are starting to get forcasts for dryer weather in the northern belt and wetter weather in the southern which is almost ideal for a decline in the bean market.
    All the fat cats that have pockets full of money with the rise in beans should start to take money before the end of the month on friday.
    Although market is over all big moving averages we are running into huge tech resistance at the shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern and the top of a downward trading range.

    Those are the reasons and I sold lots of calls in the wheat market today but not flat price futures (im not that much of a hero!)

    I sold more beans today at 890 and am not afraid to add more to a position that I think I am right about.

    It makes me feel better now after the recent posts that I am not part of the crowd in this bean market because that is deffinantly a bad decision!
  9. :D

    Terra incognita. I did some fib extensions last night to see if ZWZ7 had anyhing decipherable as poss res. Nada. It's like trying to guess where AAPL would stop.
  10. i dont follow the ag markets, but i am familiar with the area

    it's going NUTS over ethanol, unbelievable number of ethanol plants built

    and you can bet a lot of former bean acres now have corn on them

    so what does that do to the price of beans?
    #10     Aug 30, 2007