Every couple days I come back to this thread and get a nice chuckle... I don't give a damn about 3x the range, P1 doesn't give a damn, Harold doesn't give a damn... do you see a trend here? Maybe railing on "3x the daily range" is kind of a retarded, pointless argument? Either Jack can do 3x the range, or he uses that number just to rile you detractors up so you'll make long, drawn out threads like this that produce more Jack awareness and Jack followers... EITHER WAY, the joke's on you :eek:
Haha, another alias T280? Is that you? I thought you self destructed over a week ago? Have fun, I'll be back in a few days to check on you.
The guys at Simple Profitable Method thread are doing much better than 3X the daily range when you normalize for the fact that SPM is in and out in 15 minutes and THEM are in all day. The average trade is about 10-15 minutes. So if you do 2 trades a day and pull out about 2 points in the ER2 then that is 4 points in about 30 minutes. That is 8 points an hour normalized. At 6 hrs 45 minutes for a trading session that is 54 points per day run rate. Assume the average range is 10 points and voila! the SPM guys make 5.4 times the daily range ! on a normalized basis.
I commend T28 and his crew because he does something the rest of THEM don't do. He shows a way of making money of his own kind heartedness and willingness to share. I understand his defensiveness with Jack as I'm sure I would have been defensive also. HOWEVER, by your own admission, you prove to yourself how to recognize effectiveness. OF COURSE, in err, you have proven what you don't get; the fact that TIME is the most critical variable. So let's say you play baseball. You are a pinch hitter and you make a hit 8 out of 10 times that you pinch hit. However, you only get to pinch hit twice in 10 games. Over the 10 games, you make 2 hits. However, the regular players are showing 5+ hits over the same period of 10 games. Which is more effective? Clearly the regular player is making it. Teams do not pay big bucks for pinch hitters, they pay big bucks for your derek jeters, frequently consistent. It is all about taking out the most per time period. Time you spent out of the market is time you cannot recoup. So buy this standard, a "setup" that can be used ALL OF THE TIME is more valuable than a "setup" that can only be used SOME OF THE TIME! Which would you rather have, the infrequent pinch hitter, or the player who plays regularly and routinely gets hits regardless of the situation??? Additionally, why aren't you over in SPM? They should have been able to slug it out last week although they would have been stopped out at there upside via their 10 handle target. Either way, they wouldn't have had the whipsaw problem they have noted with their method but that is because they haven't considered how it is that volume will show them when whipsaw is on the table... It is like looking outside your window and seeing rain/sun/snow/trend/whipsaw/etc...
You could also look at it in earnings of dollars per hour, a fairly common standard. In that case the SPM guys are still way ahead of THEM.
You still miss the point. Over the same time span of several days, how many hours are they in over the total hours that were available? In other words, if you were sitting on the bench while the game is being played, you cannot make any points. In a week or so, march madness will kick off. I assure you that when the clock is ticking, every single player wants to be on the court. Nobody wants to sit on the bench when the clock is ticking. Naturally, the guys you do find on the floor all the time while the clock is ticking are the effective players like your team captain and usual point scorers. Coaches do not bench players who can make baskets all of the time regardless of the defense they face. We are talking about players who can play every single play and take the shot regardless of whether or not they will make the shot. Not the players who come off the bench to contribute a foul or play a rebound or jump ball. These type of players are limited. If the player who plays the full 40 minutes bangs 27 points, how can you expect the bench player to bang out 27 points if he only plays 5 mins in a 40 min game? Of course, if such a player could drain 27 points in 5 mins, the coach would have him play the full 40 mins. This mon frere, is the measure of effectiveness with respect to time. In other words, there is a penalty for sitting on the bench for any period of time. You CAN'T earn points when you are sitting on the bench as the clock is ticking!!!
A HA! Au contraire, mon frere! This is another example of reading the driving manual without understanding the material. It is completely FALSE to assume that risk increases the longer you are exposed. If you hold a long trend, are you more at risk for losing on the position if you are long??? In actuality, risk increases when you don't know what you are doing and/or what is going on. Your backtest EQ curve proves that beyond a reasonable doubt. When you don't know what is going on in a trade, thats when you make mistakes that are the result of failing to take action. Having read the drivers manual, you would have already know that RISK is a matter of your second binary value. WHY? Because ultimately, the only way to bang out points is when price is changing swiftly. No one would argue that whipsaw is VERY RISKY! Why is it risky? Well if you look closely, that second binary value hits you up side your head. Sometime last year, I did a quickie on RISK via that second binary value. The result was that it is less risky to pull out points when the market is moving versus when the market is not moving. You can know when the market is moving by READING it's pace via that second binary bit value that you backtested out of the driver's manual. "I thought you would have figured that out by now!" -Oracle (The Matrix Reloaded) http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1034264
We both know this is not the same illustration in trading. IF you can get a rate of $2000 an hour for 1 hour, then you should be working for for 40 hours at $2000/hr rate. At the rate of 1 hour a week, you would take you nearly 2 years to bank $200K. Working 40hours at $2000/hr, it would take you 2.5 weeks. Are you saying it is better to achieve the same goal over the course of 2 years instead of 2.5 weeks? The better illustration is a quarter mile track. Which car would you rather ride in, the one that does the quarter sub 10 or the one that does sub 8. REMEMBER, the variable is time. If one approaches reaches your goal quicker, why would you spend time taking the slower approach? This is why we have highways. Otherwise, we could just use the side roads. Again, time is the real culprit. You assume that it takes us more time to achieve what T28 achievs in 10 minutes. Believe it or not, we could trade the Russel and the results will be similarly nuts...
I have no interest in sharing either, as a matter of fact I DONT make 3X the daily range. I already gave you a trade I was in w/ 20 lots of this thread, thats a bone for you. You can look at it, check T&S from that day and maybe you can figure out what I did. Its called DOING YOUR OWN WORK. Its not too often a trader of my caliber shares a $10K with you w/ exact price in was in and out from. Go look back on this thread and do some homework and maybe some day you'll have 6 and 7 figure days.