Basic Strategy to earn 10% yearly?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by jarjar, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. jarjar

    jarjar

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp << Who the hell writes like that, that diagram looks like multiplication not a power.

    Also it seems you need to use the amount you invest instead of the price of the stock.
     
    #31     Feb 26, 2016
  2. Sergio77

    Sergio77

    Buy low, selll high.
     
    #32     Feb 27, 2016
    jarjar and botpro like this.
  3. sell deep otm puts on something that must mean revert
    bonus: you don't need to look at this trade all year

    more risk averse you should trade more frequently. risk = total amount of time overall you are not completely flat. but this one is the simplest and lowest maintenance
     
    #33     Mar 3, 2016
  4. "sell deep OTM puts... and don't look at the this trade" I think this is the scariest advice I've ever seen on ET. I'd love to know what kind of assets must mean revert. Can you give an example?

    GAT

    PS You should probably read this


    And if you have read it, read it again.
     
    #34     Mar 4, 2016
    Sig likes this.
  5. I can't say I ever go completely naked you'll hedge. I've ridden stocks to 0 - terrifying (but a good learning experience!) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723527/000093176303001862/g33902tx-53.jpg

    Something VIX related won't go to 0, for instance VIXY has never been below 10. (I know the etns you lose on the roll etc..) World blowing up like LTCM makes this trade better. The bet is, VIX won't crash lower than its ever been. Again, hedge it off but you don't need to compound too many 1-2% gains to get to 10%.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2016
    #35     Mar 4, 2016
  6. Okay that's actually interesting. Selling VIX puts is unusual - a 'pro crisis' trade that also earns you carry (theta in this case). The only problem seems to be that (a) deep OTM puts aren't very liquid and (b) naturally the premium pickup is very poor; I'm seeing bid ask of 0.05-0.15 on the lowest august strikes. It's also not obvious who would take the other side of this- who are the people who need to hedge themselves against the VIX falling?

    I think these 'shouldn't go below 10' trades are rare though, and the few that do exist are going to get hurt in a crisis. I also think that naked option selling is dangerous, and reading your post that seemed to be what you were advocating.

    GAT
     
    #36     Mar 4, 2016
  7. Honestly I say sell puts just to simplify.. Personally I'd do covered calls I don't sell options naked. If $VIX ever goes < 10 I promise I'm doubling down selling more calls.
     
    #37     Mar 4, 2016
  8. I realise that but the OP is very much a novice at finance and wouldn't have realised that there was some implicit hedging implied in your answer.

    GAT
     
    #38     Mar 4, 2016
  9. fan27

    fan27

    #39     Mar 9, 2016
  10. Sig

    Sig

    Impressive results right up until the last month when it looks like it took a 20% nosedive, or am I misreading it?

    upload_2016-3-9_16-15-31.png
    That's what I always end up with when I overfit in backtesting, great results all the way until I take it "live", i.e. forward testing.
     
    #40     Mar 9, 2016