To be honest, I don't know that there's anything inherently wrong with indicators; I think it's really in how you use them. As long as you're of the mindset that you won't be right all the time, and that's okay, I think indicators are fine. Personally, I know myself. I'm not experienced enough to trade strictly off price action and I won't get news fast enough to capitalize on it. That leaves indicators, or throwing darts at a board. While the latter definitely sounds more fun ( ), I think I found a way I'm comfortable with and that produces decent results in predicting direction. Who knows, maybe I'll get everything wrong, but for now, it seems to work okay.
Hi again, OK. I also like - as you can see in my thread - a fundamental approach. It's nice to know what's going on - and why. But does a big fundamental knowledge makes pips? Well, I heard that Warren Buffett is down with 800 m in his short dollar play, so I don't think so. P.S. Do you trade divergences in your indicators?
Ironically enough, I prefer the fundamental approach. I've only become interested in trading and technical analysis over the past few months. I'm still more of a long-term investor, but I don't have enough money to devote to any one stock position to make it worthwhile (in my eyes). I've done a lot of reading and research on Buffet, and I take his approach (or, at the least, something similiar) when it comes to picking companies to hold for the long haul. However, over the short term, I don't know that the fundamentals really play much of a role. Two quotes I always keep in mind when going between the two styles and time frames (roughly paraphrased): 1) Over the short term, the market is a voting machine; over the long term, it's a weighing machine. It's late, but I'm pretty sure that was Benjamin Graham. and of course, 2) The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. Now that I think about it, while I'm comfortable with both fundamental and technical analysis, the reason I tend to disregard the fundamengtals in forex is because I don't think I have an edge there while I *might* have an edge when it comes to predicting direction. I do, however, think I have somewhat of an edge in fundamental analysis when it comes to picking companies as investments.
Sorry, I forgot to answer your question. I tried to edit my post, but there's something wrong with my browser and it wasn't working. Anyway, I do look for divergences, but I may or may not play them. I try and get a general idea of things, and go from there. If that involves playing the divergence, so be it; if it doesn't, no big deal. I try to remain fluid and not lock myself into anything as I'm still learning and building a foundation.
Hi again, No 2 was from Keynes, the famous british economist. He was also a great speculator/investor - but he knew his very big fundamental knowledge wouldn't help him if he was wrong. So he learned to listen to the market instead of himself. I think fundamentals are important if you want to be a long-term trader. It's more easy to hold your position if you know why it moves.
hi all, what do you think will be the reactions to the data today? we have at 8:30 - retail sales - initial jobless claims - ppi and then later mr greenspan speaking. i think the news will point to more inflation/rate hike. that should be a long usd signal. maybe in eurusd the low at 1,175x will be broken if the data is looking like inflation very much. im still short eurusd @ 1,1900