I'm catching up on reading Baruch's journal this morning and I see I missed something here. You also have to watch out for the revision to last months number. This is especially important if it was out of range. If so people will be wondering if the number was wrong. For the above example, the previous month was 308K and it was revised up to 340K; so it was confirmation that it was a sell.
I don't know of a source where you can get this number. For the US numbers, at least, it never seems to be right so I wouldn't worry too much about it. I use it as another piece of info to gauge what traders are looking for--but that it pretty much its only use.
Yes, trading short term is not for those who need to be right most of the time and not for anyone that lacks discipline to cut their losses. You have to treat each trade independently and stay in the moment (except if you start having a string of losers; them you have to ask yourself if you are doing something wrong). Friday, I stuck to trading the Euro. Probably because I had a feeling that the numbers would be in range (boy was I wrong there) and also because it was a short trading day for the notes because of the holiday weekend and I wasn't sure how many big players were already on vacation. After the 8:30AM Eastern numbers I scratched 12250s then bought 12246 an took it up to 65 over several trades over the next half hour. On the Michigan consumer confidence I bought 37 and took a loss 33, bought 34 out at 33, bought 31 out at 36. On the Chicago # I sold 19 and took 14, then sold 21 and took a loss at 24, then sold 28s and took it down to 03 over about 10 trades. I should have quit there but I thought that they would continue down and I took a few losers at the end.
Traderguy, Do you trade other futures instrument? E-minis, Bonds, Bunds, Eurostoxx etc? If so, I would like to know your comm. per RT for these instruments. How many RTs you do per month to get that kind of rates? Thanks a lot.
Yes, I'm a couple time zones east of you but the hours still suck. I think that eventually I will trade from Europe.
I trade 10 year notes on some of the #s. Transaction costs (fees & comm) per rt: # of RT per month <5K 5-10K 10-40K 40-100K 100K+ CBOT $.62 $.58 $.54 $.50 $.42 Bunds E.88 E.84 E.76 E.72 E.64 Eurostoxx E1.04 E1.00 E.96 E.92 E.84 # of RT per month <2.5K 2.5-5K 5-10K 10-40K 10-100 100+ e-mini 1st 100 free $.63 $.59 $.55 $.51 $.47 $.35
Thanks. Pls let me know who your broker is and what are their minimal platform fee, if any. And, why is the e-mini free for the 1st 100? what is the catch here?
I work for Refco Trading Services (Macfutures re-branded after Refco purchased them). They are a prop shop, not a retail broker, and do not offer remote trading. No clue about the 1st 100 free for the e-mini. If I had to guess I would think that this is an exchange thing that was implemented when the product was new to get people to try it.
TRADERguy, Thank you. Do you trade the number (sell the good number and buy the bad number) or just follow the flow? How do you know when to take your loss - and your profit?
I place my support and resistance lines/trendlines the same way everyone else does, I suppose, by observing how price behaves at certain levels. In addition, in forex futures you have the advantage of having volume on the screen, which can be quite a good indication of significant price points/areas. While I am in no way a computer genius, I am a programmer, and I have built systems in the past using IB's programming interface, and also eSignal's interface. So far, I haven't built one that is consistently profitable -- or to put it bluntly, they've all lost money in the long run. I haven't given up looking, but I do find that I trade better using some discretion. It certainly can -- and is -- done. The key elements are having a profitable system in the first place, and being able to break the system down into rules that a computer can execute. I'm thinking about putting together a "Baruch MA Breakout System", but I need to define the entry and exit criteria a little better. Maybe we can collaborate, and then I'll give you the program once we've defined the rules.