Discussion in 'Trading' started by Port1385, Jul 6, 2008.
There are a bunch of negative articles about Ambac around too. Buy that. Or do your 2 month charts not scream buy?
Look at the top 5 most viewed articles...
Port, it sounds as if you are long and trying to justify your posistion by whatever means necessary, good luck. if you are long w/out stops, I would put some stops in, this week is going to have some fireworks, up and down.
Oil is the KEY!
Bear is here till oil drops when ever that is!
The only contrary play on this article would be a quick sharp bounce. But I haven't seen any signs of buyers committing to these levels in the past week. The overall market internals are oversold, but it's been this way for 3 weeks. This is a sure sign of true liquidation, a lot of people have walked away, unlike in March after BSC bailout.
The best reward is to fade the rallies with the futures. And maybe take some bites on some very select equities to the longside for that bounce. But you've got to scale in here, don't take the whole bite at once, and take profits quick.
Honestly everybody's calling the top in oil including me but now I just won't fight it, although technically USO is showing some bearish divergence.
I've been 80% cash since last week. I have a few stocks for long term that I'm gonna keep. Pulled my SDS a last week ... maybe too early, I suppose but I don't want a sharp rally to hurt me at this level.
Very volatile and VIX isn't even 30. Either way, in my opinion we may get a sharp movement - either up or down, soon.
I believe the overall market is oversold. I base this on the percentage of stocks moving above their 200 day moving average. It appears that only 21% are moving above their 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq and 25% on the NYSE. Those 25% are most probably energy and material related stocks...
In 2002-2003 the lowest level was around 9-16% for both I believe.
The sentiment is so bearish that the top 5 articles read on Barrons are about a bear market. My indicators show the market way oversold and the majority of stocks in a downward spiral.
Crashes dont happen like this only rebounds...
not saying the market is gonna crash, but it may not bounce either, the slow grind down could continue for any amount of time. I do think we are due some sort of bounce, but the sellers aren't going to stay away for long..a fib retrace is what i would look for at best.
Time to get long like I have been saying. There isnt a bear, never was. Just a healthy pullback after a long upmove. 20-30% corrections come every so often and now is the time. Getting long a few months from now is no good. Time go to long right now...
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