(sorry - I meant high teens and above) We may already be approaching 20%... All depends on how you look at it and if you use the same metrics as GD1. And keep in mind, GD1 did not have a sharp rise in unemployment to the 20s until years later. It wasn't like everything went to hell in November of 1929. There were some major bear rallies; a lot of optimisim. GD2 is still in its early stages. Is it a coincidence that this current rally can only be compared to the one in 1933? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-Unemployment-the-Worst-usnews-174596058.html?x=0 So how did WWII get us out of the depression? Historians attribute that event, not the Federal Reserve, as the reason for the end of the depression. What happened after WWII? 1) A new monetary regime - Bretton Woods 2) A lot of dead people that lowered the unemployment rate 3) A lot of destruction that needed to be repaired which kept people busy for decades 4) A global new order with two nations as the sole unchallenged powers... We're heading for a new realignment. I just can't see it happening peacefully.
Let's say it's the year 2025. Saudi Arabia is no longer delivering oil to all its customers. Peak Oil in a really bad way - economies around the world face collapse if they haven't already. The US sends a force and forcibly takes Saudi Arabia to ensure a supply of oil for itself. The US also defaults on its payments to China, so it really needs to control a tangible asset of value - Oil. What does China do? Give up? Does China think - hey, we both have nuclear weapons, so the new rule is first one there gets it. Too late to attack b/c of nukes.... also, does China forgive the US debt because the US has nukes? What would you do if you were China in this scenario?
the only way to get out of this is a major war. maybe we should declare war on the racist european union
Kill off half of the world's population so the surviving half can find a job? I'm sure that thought is pulsing through some pea-brained beaurocrat's head even now.
Interesting scenario. I suppose if I were the Chinese, I would forcibly go after my own oil (resources) to counter. Could we see Cold War 2 with the Chinese sometime in the future?
Plenty of oil in africa. Wouldnt be too hard to take over alot of those countries. Only reason we dont go to war with them is because they are black and africa would play the race card.
I think so.. but it will be different than the US/USSR relationship. China and the US remind me of a movie. I don't recall it - but imagine two convicts fleeing that are also chained to eachother's wrist. Eventually one guy can't keep up and slows down the other. Now bone is a lot easier to cut off than a steel chain.... so.... well, you get the gist.
Just to go back to the original topic, Helicopter Ben was Greenspan's cheerleader. Bernanke quotes: "We think that, by the spring, early next year, that as these credit problems resolve and as we hope, the housing market begins to find a bottom, that the broader resiliency of the economy which we are seeing in other areas outside of housing will take control and will help the economy recover to a more reasonable growth pace." ---in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday, November 8, 2007 (source: "Nightly Business Report," Thursday, November 8, 2007) "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession." ----after a speech given in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, January 9, 2008 (source: AFP, Thursday, January 10, 2008) "My baseline outlook involves a period of sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of (Fed) and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt."---in testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on February 14, 2008 (source: FederalReserve.gov) Don't forget about telling us that if TARP wasn't passed over a particular weekend, then there may have not have been an economy on the following Monday. TARP wasn't passed that weekend as it was delayed but there was an economy on Monday and everyday after that. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jNBNqUdqm1E&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jNBNqUdqm1E&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>