Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Baron, Oct 5, 2021.

  1. NoahA

    NoahA

    I don't disagree that there couldn't be a better bitcoin, and maybe if it was to start today, given how bandwidth is huge and storage is cheap, it would look different. But we have what we have. If you see hashrate crash, that is a problem, but even in this market it continues going up. So what you and I think doesn't matter. The market is somehow putting in a shit ton of resources into mining. The about of nodes validating transactions is also forever growing.

    I encourage people to try and make a better bitcoin, and if it reaches critical mass, we can all use that. But it just won't happen. That is the point I'm trying to make.
     
    #961     Jan 9, 2023
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  2. NoahA

    NoahA

    Most no, but some do. In the end, it won't matter. The use case for bitcoin will become more and more apparent as central banks fuck up more and more.
     
    #962     Jan 9, 2023
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  3. NoahA

    NoahA

    Once again, patience. The Fed is backed into a corner. Budgets will never balance, and interest rates will bankrupt the government even more if they stay where they are. The numbers when the entire 31 trillion has to be rolled over is that half of the budget will be taken up by interest payments which is 100% not sustainable. This is why everyone says the Fed will have to pivot on rates. But when that happens, what will happen to inflation? Jesus, right not they are trying to induce mass unemployment just to bring inflation down. How fucked up is that?
     
    #963     Jan 9, 2023
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  4. NoahA

    NoahA

    How long does the average world reserve currency last if you go back 500 years? Where is the USD on this timeline? Are you saying you can't imagine USD ever falling out of favor?

    I'm not saying the world is ending, but I'm saying the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20 years in terms of all things related to money.
     
    #964     Jan 9, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  5. Baron

    Baron Administrator

    Overall since the get-go, I'm down 0%.
     
    #965     Jan 9, 2023
    semperfrosty and johnarb like this.
  6. But who's to say it ends now, in your lifetime? That's a wild guess, and likely a wrong one.

    Possibly. Who knows? But that could very well include BTC.
     
    #966     Jan 9, 2023
    virtusa likes this.
  7. schizo

    schizo

    But what does all this got to do with BTC? It ain't like replacing USD with BTC (on a national level) will somehow magically make our national debt disappear. Or that individual buying BTC will make inflation come down.

    But we do know for certain that massive number of people lost huge amounts of money when BTC crashed from its ATH and exchanges, one after another, fell like dominoes
     
    #967     Jan 9, 2023
    virtusa likes this.
  8. So your average price is no lower than the current price?
     
    #968     Jan 9, 2023
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  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    Agreed. But if we are truly going to do this metric justice, we have to consider how much wealth the Fed has plundered from everyone else through inflation (ie. not the top 10%). When you look back 20 or 30 years, you see how much more equitable things were. Now people are just debt slaves, going from month to month simply to survive.

    It won't make the debt go away, and I have no idea how a collapse even happens, but I do know that if you have something else to jump to, you do.
     
    #969     Jan 9, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  10. NoahA

    NoahA

    I think its one of those things that when it starts to happen, things happen quick. I doubt it will end in some catastrophic collapse perhaps, but more and more people will learn to not hold cash or USTs, and well, all hell can break loose at that point really since from my understanding, USTs are the backbone of the financial system. So maybe it can be a dramatic collapse. We saw already major currency things in the past decade with a de-peg of the Swiss Franc, then the gold standard elimination in 1971, so who knows, maybe something big can happen in this decade which forever puts the system on a new path.

    Here is a great collection of charts. Something similar happened after 2008 when QE showed up, and perhaps another pivotal moment is upon us already.

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
     
    #970     Jan 9, 2023
    johnarb likes this.