Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Baron, Oct 5, 2021.

  1. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    My post had no racial or ethnic component. While you do not state as such, I presume you are implying the increased racial and ethnic diversity means more non-Red voters and yet the just completed mid-terms has shown that in Florida, the movement is movement towards voting GOP for ethnic minorities in Florida.

    If this were a stock chart, I'd still be long Florida even if the rate of change has started to slow.

    upload_2022-11-14_9-24-36.png
     
    #671     Nov 14, 2022
    virtusa likes this.
  2. destriero

    destriero

    The ROC slowed due to COVID deaths.

    The vast majority of pop-growth in FL is the aging demo. Old ppl like warm weather
     
    #672     Nov 14, 2022
  3. Sprout

    Sprout

    While your assertion is valid, it’s a conundrum for election deniers as well as establishment Democrats.

    Both DeSantis and Rubio having such strong performance has yet to be broken down, seems their messaging resonates with Hispanics. I have no idea why.
     
    #673     Nov 14, 2022
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    The purchasing power of the dollar has not decreased by 50% since a year or two ago. It is your house that has gone up in value over that time period that makes up the difference. Your home increased in price because your home has done what fixed-assets like houses generally do...They go up in value over time. There is simply more demand for housing in your area.

    Read again my example of the Twinkie-box-equivalence as compared to your house value.
     
    #674     Nov 14, 2022
  5. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    do you even have a house? house prices increased like crazy the last 2 years. It's not because they just "go up in value over time". Inflated money supply makes everything expensive including food, cars, etc. I think you need to get out more
     
    #675     Nov 14, 2022
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  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    #676     Nov 14, 2022
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    I used to have a condo in Florida, in Tampa-area. Sold it at the market housing market slump in 2015. Huge mistake. And that was in the ZIRP environment. Inflation did not cause it to God-knows-what increase in value since then...It was demand. Think about the Twinkies!
     
    #677     Nov 14, 2022
  8. Baron

    Baron Administrator

    hilmy83 is spot on.

    Overnight, I'll give you a story as an example.

    At the beginning of 2020, you had finally amassed $100k in savings to put 20% down towards the purchase of a new house. It's a $500k home in a quiet neighborhood and you're excited to finally close on it and move in. On the drive to the title company's office to close the deal, you get in a car accident and it puts you in a coma while in the hospital. When you finally snap out of it, you're told that it's the year 2022.

    You're shocked to learn that the house you wanted had been sold to someone else shortly after your accident, so you go hunting for another one. First, you check your bank account to make sure that your $100k in savings is still in there, and sure enough, it is. After looking at some of the current home listings in the same neighborhood, you find that homes are no longer in the $500k range, but are now $600k - $650k. You search the listings for other neighborhoods in the surrounding areas but no matter where you look, you discover that everything is priced higher across the board.

    After feeling discouraged, you get the bright idea that instead of buying a prebuilt home, you'll just buy a lot and build one yourself. But after meeting with several contractors, you discover that you can't even build a similar-sized house for $500k because the price of building materials has also gone up significantly.

    The situation becomes even bleaker when you realize you'll have to save up another $20k or $30k to even be able to afford the down payment for the same size house in the same neighborhood, and that your monthly payment will be higher than it was before your accident, which is now outside of your budget.

    So what just happened?

    While you were in a coma, the U.S. government increased the money supply by a staggering 27%, which means there's now trillions of extra dollars all competing for the same basket of goods and services. You realize that although the government can print trillions of dollars with a keystroke, they can't instantly print more houses or more building materials to keep up with all the new money that can be spent.

    So looking back on the situation, was everyone who owned a house a genius real investor whose homes became more "valuable"? No, not at all. Homes didn't become more valuable across the board, they became more costly. The $100k down payment you saved up back in 2020 is no longer sufficient to buy a home because the buying power of your dollars went down. In other words, it now takes more dollars to buy the exact same home as before because your dollars have lost their purchasing power.

    And this is where so many people get a false sense of security. They think that because their dollars are still sitting safely in their bank accounts, the currency itself is strong and solid. But nothing could be further from the truth. You're never going to discover that your dollar bill says 75 cents on it one day. Oh, you'll still have your dollar bills exactly as they always have been. Although they say "dollar" on them, the amount of goods and services they can buy is getting less and less with each passing year.

    And that's why wealthy people don't have money just sitting in bank accounts. Unless they invest their money in stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, etc., the buying power of their dollars will continue to become smaller, which ultimately means they would actually be losing money each year if they held their wealth in a bank account.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2022
    #678     Nov 15, 2022
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  9. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    the silver lining in this story is; you came out of your coma.
     
    #679     Nov 15, 2022
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  10. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Sure, but this argument also goes against the whole crypto economy. Crypto supply increased by gazillion % in the last few years, because of new coins and forks. A simple fork increases BTC's supply by 100%.
    You may say there is only one BTC, but that is not actually true in this case, because incoming money has now more choices and it spreads out among many more coins. Aka, competition, that acts as inflation, if you wish.
     
    #680     Nov 15, 2022
    virtusa likes this.