The die hard crypto fans give thumbs up at any price. So these thumbs up are hilarious and have no value at all. When Baron bought above 60K they gave him thumbs up too. Tells a lot about their "expertise". LOL. So based on past experience you should rather be afraid if you get thumbs up from these die hards. The decline of ET.
I have a buy signal for bitcoin over a week ago and bullish crypto at this point. PS: I arrive at signals via data crunching, not charts.
This 5-month consolidating period in the $20,000 range is unprecedented in the trading world. Very unusual for a volatile trading product. A big up or down move is on its way.
I would never buy here. Monthly chart is still not at the bottom. Weekly chart is long but close to a short signal. Daily chart is close to a top, after which the (weekly) short might start.
You can look at it two ways imo, take the trade now with tight stops, ie consider it risky, or wait until about 25000. Or do both, take a small position now and load up at 25000. Several ways really, wait until each new monthly high and add. My call is that at 25000, bitcoin will begin to motor.
There are at least THREE ways: the two ways you explained, and "my way". As I only believe in "my way" that's the only option for me. I also go always all in. I have no "weak" or "strong" signals. I just get in or out full size. To me it makes no sense to wait till 25000. Why not take the potential profits below 25000? I focus on trend and high probability of entries and exits. No matter where the price is or what the market thinks that will happen.
To you it makes no sense, to others it does. Everyone is technically looking at different things, so collectively the results appear a bit random. Some look at different period MA's, others look at straight line trends, but those too are from different periods. Other look at EW etc etc. So, when a new trend begins in its infancy, most are not involved. As time progresses, more and more technicians join in the buying as their trigger levels are hit. Waiting until 25000 just means, being a major round number, being at a significant resistance level, still reasonably young in an uptrend, there is more likely a mass of traders who will wish to be buyers and holders. Highest reward is being earliest, but it carries higher risk, 25000 is less risk, less reward, but it's still ok considering 70,000 was previous high. You'll notice, bottoms round off or curve, 25k is the curve beginning to pull upward again, it makes sense to me the bottom is behind us then with higher lows.