Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Baron, Oct 5, 2021.

  1. Thanks a lot, Pekelo. You taught me something :)

    I searched for your definition, found here:

     
    #511     Oct 4, 2022
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    The tale of Larry and Gary lol.

    Millions in Cryptocurrency Vanished as Agents Watched Helplessly


    Feds locked up a storage device full of ill-gotten tokens. Then someone started stealing the loot.

    [​IMG]
    Illustration: Charles Desmarais for Bloomberg Businessweek
    By
    David Voreacos

    October 3, 2022 at 5:00 AM EDT

    Gary Harmon grinned as he lounged in a bathtub full of dollar bills surrounded by scantily clad women. The moment, captured in a photo on his cellphone, could be part of his undoing. To US prosecutors, it’s evidence that he suddenly came into a lot of money.

    The prosecutors accuse Harmon of a very unusual crime: remotely swiping Bitcoin stored on a computer device the government had already seized in another case, brought against his older brother, Larry. As authorities watched helplessly, 713 digital tokens—then worth almost $5 million—were somehow spirited away from the “hardware wallet” they were holding in an evidence locker.

    [​IMG]
    Gary Harmon in a tub full of money.
    Source: U.S District Court for the District of Columbia
    Larry Harmon, who’s since pleaded guilty to laundering $311 million through crypto transactions, swore up and down he wasn’t involved in the disappearing act. Instead, Larry, 39, pointed the finger at Gary, 30, and ultimately helped to nail him. Gary is in federal jail in Washington, D.C., awaiting trial, and Larry is free on bail near Akron. The cases of the Harmons—literal crypto bros—show how the IRS and the FBI are succeeding in collecting evidence but still face challenges on the blockchain frontier. Authorities had to track digital money moving through a tangle of anonymous accounts to connect it to Larry. When they tried to seize it, they faced a problem: How do you put a fence around a quicksilver asset such as Bitcoin?

    Larry’s arrest in February 2020 was something of a milestone in crypto enforcement. In addition to the large sums of money involved, it was the first time anyone had been charged with crimes related to “mixing,” a practice that makes it much harder to trace transactions by jumbling together tokens from different owners. In 2014, Larry created a search engine called Grams, which helped users scour the darknet for illegal drugs, guns, and hacking services. Then users could pay via a mixing service he ran called Helix, earning Larry 2.5% of each transaction.

    Mixing’s advocates in the crypto world say it enhances privacy. But under the online moniker “gramsadmin,” Larry touted Helix as a way to prevent law enforcement from tracing tainted Bitcoin.

    Business took off. In late 2016, AlphaBay, then the largest market on the darknet, started steering its customers to Helix. US authorities were watching. An undercover FBI agent transferred Bitcoin from AlphaBay to Helix, establishing a link between them. In July 2017 the US shut down AlphaBay, calling it a major source of heroin and fentanyl. Authorities didn’t yet know who ran Helix. Months later, Larry closed down the mixer, having performed 356,000 Bitcoin transactions. More publicly he developed Dropbit, an app he promoted as the Venmo of crypto for transfers between users. Larry was a tireless promoter of Bitcoin and his company Coin Ninja. In a 2019 video on Twitter, he showed off his Bitcoin hat, shirt, and socks.

    The US hunt to identify Helix’s operator picked up when IRS criminal agents joined the case. Bitcoin transactions are executed on a blockchain, a publicly viewable online database. The coins move between accounts with no names, just long strings of random-looking letters and numbers. Crypto transactions may seem free of fingerprints, but they often can be tracked down when individuals try to turn coins into cash. That’s where Larry made some mistakes.

    Working with Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics company, the agents studied thousands of Helix transactions, subpoenaed emails, and ultimately found one involving a website that allows users to buy gift cards with Bitcoin. An email associated with Larry was used to open the account, says a person familiar with the matter who wasn’t authorized to discuss the case publicly.

    [​IMG]
    Larry Harmon
    Source: Twitter
    Agents built a detailed financial picture of Larry. Inspecting his cloud accounts, they found a Google Glass photo of a computer screen showing the Helix administrator page. In early 2020, agents arrested him at his Akron office, where they also found a Trezor crypto storage device, a small computer attachment that looks a bit like an MP3 player.

    Gary lived across the hall from the office. He talked to agents that morning and attended the hearing where prosecutors convinced a judge that Larry was a flight risk and should stay locked up. Larry was moved to a Washington jail, but when Covid-19 exploded, his lawyers sought his release on bail. Among the letters of support was one from Gary, who wrote effusively about Larry’s positive influence on his life, saying his older brother had given him a job, taught him coding, and “truly made me a better person.”

    At the bail hearing on March 13, 2020, Assistant US Attorney Christopher Brown said Larry had “potentially tens of millions of dollars” in crypto assets that were illegal proceeds. Agents couldn’t gain access to them from the storage device found in his office because they didn’t have the correct passphrases to unlock them. But they could see, looking at the blockchain online, that addresses they had traced back to Larry controlled the money.

    Hardware crypto wallets hold the cryptographic private keys—long strings of numbers and letters—that allow someone to go online and use a Bitcoin address for transactions. As a backup, Trezor hardware wallets can generate a “seed phrase,” a combination of as many as 24 words that can re-create those private keys on another device. In essence, anyone who knows the magic words and an additional PIN can take control of the Bitcoin. Unplugging the wallet device and physically locking it away is no protection. Brown warned that Larry could remotely take Bitcoin and that the government would be powerless to stop it. “Until we can secure them and transfer them to a government wallet, those are available for him or his family members to transfer,” he said in court. US District Judge Beryl Howell granted bail anyway.

    Over six days in April 2020, IRS agents discovered Bitcoin was moved from the addresses they knew about. Prosecutors went back to court. Howell said she was “very skeptical” that the crime had occurred without Larry’s knowledge and direction. “Do you understand that?” the judge asked. “Yes, I do know,” Larry said. “Don’t try and be cute with me,” the judge snapped.

    Howell ordered Larry to turn over all his passwords so agents could transfer the remaining 4,164 Bitcoins—then valued at $40 million—to a secure wallet. Larry did, and the thefts stopped. He continued to deny any role in the caper, but if it wasn’t Larry, who was it?

    Within a month, Larry told prosecutors that Gary was the culprit, as did an informant. It took prosecutors 15 more months to get Larry to plead guilty to money laundering and agree to provide evidence against Gary and darknet operators. Larry faces up to 20 years in prison, but his cooperation with prosecutors will likely earn him a lesser sentence. He’s also been hit with a $60 million civil fine from the US Department of the Treasury.

    Federal agents began building a case against Gary. An informant told them Gary had asked his advice on Bitcoin gambling services, records show. The source believed Gary wanted to use them to mix Bitcoin he took from Larry. Gary is “not the sharpest tool in the shed and did not think through the consequences for his brother” before he moved the Bitcoin, the informant said.

    Agents later found four emails sent to Gary’s Gmail account from no-reply@trezor.io, reflecting the re-creation of wallets on devices. He’s denied taking the Bitcoin. When agents interviewed him in July 2020, he said, “If I took it, why wouldn’t I take it all?”

    Recently, Gary’s lawyer said in court that “just because the government cannot manage to keep up with its technology, that is not the defendant’s problem.”

    The government says agents traced 519 of the stolen Bitcoin through two mixers. Although the mixing hides where the money went, prosecutors say the transactions correspond to a “dramatic transformation” in Gary’s finances. They say he deposited 68 Bitcoin with the BlockFi finance company, which lets people borrow against their coins. He used most as collateral for a $1.2 million loan. Some of that went to buy a luxury condo in Cleveland, prosecutors said. And then there was the picture on his phone, included in the government’s court filings, of the bathtub of bills.

    Gary was arrested in July 2021, accused of money laundering and other crimes. Like his brother, he requested bail. Prosecutors said to secure bail Gary should have to turn over seed phrases to the stolen Bitcoin. His lawyer said that condition would force him to admit crimes, which violates his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination.

    At a hearing in July, prosecutor Brown said Gary turned down two plea offers. His trial is scheduled for February.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-bitcoin-btc-the-crypto-hacker-stole-it-back
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2022
    #512     Oct 4, 2022
    NoahA likes this.
  3. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    6k still in the offing----
     
    #513     Oct 4, 2022
  4. NoahA

    NoahA

    You're missing the point. Yes, there was a large transaction, but how long did it take to accumulate that? How much of the liquid supply of bitcoin do you need to buy in order to move a certain amount on money? That is the question. With bitcoin being only about 400 billion market cap now, and a good chunk of this is either in cold storage or no longer accessible, it would move the market too much to accumulate a large position. This is what I'm talking about.

    Same thing if you're trading stocks. There is a reason why certain scam gurus go into low float and low market cap stocks. They can buy some for themselves, announce it as a signal, watch their students push the price up 20 or 30 cents, and unload on them. You couldn't do this with large cap stocks. Your 100k buy order won't move the needle much.

    So if you consider that a fund wants to get into bitcoin, they need to know that is has the liquidity to maybe make a $100 million purchase over a day. But this would require about 5,000 bitcoins, and I'm not sure if this is an easy buy order or not, but I doubt it. I don't have the stats for how much is on exchanges, but its perhaps not an easy order to put together. But if bitcoin was 200k, instead of 20k now, this means a market cap of about 4 trillion, still less than gold but in the same ballpark, and now that order is only 500 bitcoins, which I imagine would be easier to acquire.

    Its really just a numbers thing. If you have a youtube channel and your video gets 1k views, nobody cares about you. If your video gets 100k views, now you're on the map and getting sponsorship deals. Big numbers create many more options. So all that I'm saying is that I understand the statement that certain funds might want to get into bitcoin, but the relatively small market cap is right now a constraint.
     
    #514     Oct 4, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    OK, so your thesis is that there are still more HF money waiting to be moving in, and that would push the price up higher.

    My observation is that whoever was interested in the HF business have already moved in. But even if there are still more money coming in, that will just make BTC even more coupled with the markets, being a high beta tech stock.

    So be careful what you wish for, the law of unintended consequences will bite you in the ass. :)

    One other thing to note: This year HFs experienced in real time (meaning while holding long) the famous crypto meltdown (the 6th if I count it right) when it loses more than 70% of its value. That is one in every 2 years. So new comers will think twice before they touch it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2022
    #515     Oct 5, 2022
    fullautotrading likes this.
  6. NoahA

    NoahA

    Actually, my thesis is that the entire world is still waiting to move in. We just need a push from the brilliant people at all the central banks to fuck up the fiat system even more.

    I have read enough, and watched enough videos, to understand that this debt based system is on its last legs. So what will really make bitcoin shine is some kind of reset, or some kind of major shock.
     
    #516     Oct 5, 2022
  7. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    And you would be wrong. Anyhow, it is pointless to debate it, so let's check back in 3, 6 and 12 months, shall we?
     
    #517     Oct 5, 2022
    NoahA likes this.
  8. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Peke'r knows the future, don't cha know.
     
    #518     Oct 5, 2022
  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    I could be wrong, but I don't think you can say with 100% that you won't be wrong either. But I agree, lets check back in 6 to 12 months. If its gonna happen, it really should happen soon.
     
    #519     Oct 5, 2022
    johnarb likes this.
  10. deaddog

    deaddog

    But don't you need some sort of fiat in order to value bitcoin?
     
    #520     Oct 5, 2022