Correlation between btc and ndx from Jan 2020 to now is about 0.92. The question is, how much would be the correction after the halving? I feel like a PTJ short idea is developing From trader documentary: " Yes, there will be some type of a decline, without a question, in the next 10, 20 months; it will be earth-shaking; it will be saber-rattling and it will have Wall Street in a tizzy and it will create headlines, that will be, that will dwarf anything that has happened to this point in time."
halving and weeks before major crash nov 28, 2012 crash dec 2013 53 weeks jul 9th 2016 crash dec 2017 75 weeks may 11 2020 crash nov 8 2021 78 weeks april 2024 75-80 weeks = sep/oct 2025 crash Maybe should start buying puts around sep/oct 2025 to protect those 401ks...
Not to overstate the white elephant in the room... but the Tether bomb is still ticking. The massive deleverage from forced margin calls and runs to the exit will most likely be a repeat of when I watched WTI oil contracts plunge into negative value from my desk.
As each day passes, the Tether argument becomes less and less significant. The inflows of capital from the BTC ETFs over the last month has been staggering. Michael Saylor and MSTR have taken years to accumulate 193,000 BTC, which is incredible. However, just within the last month, over 327,000 bitcoins have been accumulated via the ETFs, which is unprecedented. Blackrock, Fidelity and others in that ETF space are sucking up the supply of Bitcoin at a rate we've never seen before. Couple that level of demand with the halving coming up within a month and it's not too hard to see that the supply shock is going to send prices through the roof.
Actually, it may get heated even more. Vanguard looks to be doing a 180 on their stance. The CEO already got the boot-- I mean 'early retirement' for missing the boat. Not to mention the current boycott by their own customers over this failure. Due to the large size of Vanguard, it can't hurt those who are going long. Good luck.
Oh, and then on the other hand. We have such distinguished Seeking Alpha writers lately: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4675453-nothing-changes-except-fomo-meter Looks like it's just FOMO. Get out while you can!
What 180 stance? They will almost certainly not participate in crypto. You guys associate everything with a crypto spin. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Anonymous source said Mr Fink called the Vanguard ceo himself and said either resign or be publicly humiliated and fired It's been decided that Vanguard will reverse their position on offering bitcoin spot etf's