from the Age of Turbulence http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5txizf_sIwE&refer=home http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/200805/charts.pdf
he is talking about the 90-91 real estate downturn btw. His book is actually very good, easly the best finance related I read in 2007, and he is not as bad as the media make him look like, he did not engineered the housing bubble. he might have made a mistake with too low rates but he had plenty of help from other forces plus its foolish to think 100bps higher fed funds would have prevented the housing boom
Interestingly, the SP500 experienced a shallow drawdown of something like 18-19% in the fall of 1990 and made new all time highs by December. The real world economic recovery took much longer.
Do we need a rocket scientist to tell us why the banks are tightening up credit? After all, they losses total up hundreds of billions.