Banking On The Conference Board

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 22, 2009.

  1. By now you are asking yourselves as I am if we are in a rally then why are we going down?Well throw a near collapse of Bank Of America in price from $10 to $5 and a sickening slide in JP Morgan and State Street, throw in a big miss by Microsoft and the first layoffs in mass since before the tech bubble... add a Timothy Geitner delay... and ask yourselves... what the hell are we doing anywhere near DOW 8,000?

    Yes we are but scraping the bottom of the range where it has paid to go long recently; if the above mentioned panic didn't do the trick add the recent housing news & unemployment claims... well what will?

    A recent study has shown that if every financial stock out there goes to ZERO the DOW would lose a total of 300 points. Think we have rebalanced enough yet?

    Since I'm in the game of inventing names lately, I'd like to throw a bit of " Predictive Analysis " or PA(tm ~stoney), into the mix.

    Monday we should see the birth of Aggregator Bank of USA! And ladies and gents you might be reading the words of the Aggregator bank president! I understand from Obama's people that I am in the mix. This is great because I have been aggregating my wife's debts for so many years- I have it down... you want to talk about paying after 25 days and STILL getting your Amex points!! I'm the man... And as the head of Aggregator I'll work every day to amass bad debt... the more far flung the better... but I'll also take a lot of that BBB stuff too! And your first born.

    Also Monday is a bit of huge economic info no one in looking for. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators... oh stoney anything leading is bad news are you crazy? Well maybe not, most won't know that in the last report which was Nov reading reported in Dec amazingly 4 out of 10 Leading Indicators were UP. The positive contributors — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were real money supply, the interest rate spread, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.

    If these four positives go south on me once again this market will have broken my heart. But what if we throw two more to the upside? Would Mr Forward looking market begin to realize we've crossed the half way point of the recession and are ready to come down the home stretch. It's happened before folks, it's just usually interest rates are going up... think about those TIPS.

    Some more mini factoids of hope-
    > ISM report business activity 40.6 higher than the Nov report... in Nov it was 37.3. This report came out last Tuesday.

    In the durable good break out. Oct saw just a drastic number down 8.5% November was better in the above report down 1.5%... is it safe to say even with the worst Christmas this number will be positive Monday? Some of the sectors that were helping in Nov were important for the tech stocks:
    + 12.5% computer products!
    + 5.7% Info Tech
    Corporate tech spending had begun again! But it's all gloom and doom, we don't hear much about any hope. So it's DOWN DOW 194 and all looks lost. The neckline's have been broken and swivel points too... and yet here we are bouncing around the bottom without much thrust.

    A nice three week rally I had thought we were in...
    and we still can be- it is imperative that we come back strong today, have a big Banking announcement from the White House Monday AND a relatively strong Conference Board Report and confirm Geitner mid week... if this happens, 3 triggers, the mother of all short covering in the banks should ensue and stocks that have showed benign relative strength this week will outpreform.

    Stay tuned for the BRS Report! ~ stoney
  2. Daal


    This doesnt mean anything, if every financial goes to 0, then velocity of money goes close to 0 as well, US has massive deflation and the money supply dissapears.
  3. Well of course - the bigger issue would be the panic -- but I use it as an example because the market is a rolling mechanism that emphasizes and de-emphasizes sectors... when one of the most important sectors can only due that that to you... it tells you something, if you are willing to listen.

    Nice comeback today folks! :)
    Google beats! Just like IBM and I bet EMC... the market is telling us something but who is listening?

    Did you know that from our recent lows financials are down another 40% or something while tech is up a nice 8%. The market is telling us something.

    The market held the 8,000 mark again. Amen.~ stoney
  4. Well the set up continues to play out. None of you have stepped forward with a kind word or star. I wonder why I stick my neck out so far for you guys and everyone else. It's just I feel entry price is everything these days and with the interday swings the difference can be 10%.

    Anyway from the rumor mill-- the bad bank is supposed to come out over the weekend. It will pay to be long the banks here I believe. There is a very real fear of nationalization in europe which is driving fear here for existing shareholders. A decisive Obama plan and promise along with a bad bank would be very good for the market right now.

    The market is consolidating and if my conference board bet plays out we should be looking at an UP 500 point day Monday... We are that oversold.

    S&P 804 is everyones hot spot be aware of that. If we break that decisively a lot of computer led damage will be done. So I'm scared I'm not going to lie but I am going to stick to my guns on this rally call. Look for 848 the old pivot to set those same computers into a buying frenzy if we can get through it- that will be tough resistance without the bad bank set up.

    Good action from the Naz and in particular the SOX today. Up 2% with a big down DOW... it's more of what we talked about above... a tech & finance led rally would appear to be upon us IF IT WOULD JUST COME ALREADY!!!!!! It's maddening but let's stick this through.

    Is there a right shoulder emerging? of a REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS... that's the early call from stonedinvesting headquarters. The head would be Nov 21's low... but the pattern has not yet fully emerged. watching it.

    S&P 848 cannot be over emphasized because if we shoot through t hat we will also clear the nearby 50 day average @ 871.

  5. After being negative all day the dark haired Raven on CNBC suddenly realized there was a tech rally going on.
    She should of checked with us here a day ago! It's so funny the way these things go... just recently we had one of those fevered reports from the oil pits... biggest amount of oil ever being stored blah blah future contracts indicate too much supply... of course next thing you know oil is up $3! And the USO 7%.

    All this morning on CNBC neg neg neg. This is a serious lift folks or attempt anyway brought to you by stoney.
    Enjoy. And for risking looking like an idiot posting on a down 300 day How bout some darn STARS.:cool:
  6. On Tv they ponder what will be the catalyst they cannot come up with one! And we have so many 3!

    Not a peep about the Leading Indicators I do hope that is Monday.

    We are are on our way folks. lets take a peek at some of the early earnings reports- DOWN 26% ! I say not bad for deepest worst recession ever another near great depression from which our economic model will never recover from. Think about it. 52% of the companies that have reported have BEAT their number! Of course 30 plus % have missed but let's concentrate on the positive. ~ stoney
  7. Buying 800 DGIT @ $14.68 into the close.

    I have been watching this name.

    There is obviously a conversion to digital around the corner. these guys push ads digitally and are one of the more fascinating stock tails. I will be profiling the name shortly. Good volume today and I saw a report from some house ( I have to refind it ) that had some eye opening numbers-- They make like $3 an ad now which jumps to like $20 digitally! It was such a lopsided number, I filed it away as probably wrong... Well more of a hunch than anything but a stock from our list of benign relative Strength and a tech stock with new age googelesque' attributes This is a stock you all want to own... so I went for it. Hope to add another 1000 next week if the market cooperates.

    Sold MOVE for a 60% gain! to do this....

    Looking very closely at 5 tech names from the BRS List- QCOM/RHT/CYMI/GIGM & FFIV over the weekend and so should you. Have a good one. ~ stoney
  8. 1 minute... I am so excited. i must be truly the only person in America waiting for this report. It is mocked on it's importance.... here it comes- YES! HOME SALES UP! YES GIVE ME MORE... WHAT! LEADING INDICATORS INCREASING??? YES!!!!! YES ! A COMPLETE SURPRISE- except for us- OK NOW MOVE!!~ stoney

    We have accomplished so much from last week folks!
    Total negativity has been instantly replaced with hope. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS has overwhelmed technical analysis.

    There is a real political aspect to all of this- Obama and team don't want too much good news to get out before they can get their stimulus bill through... They have been amping up the gloom and doom- Leading indicators are saying otherwise. It's a fine line of course and a big screw up and we are back in the soup... but can't someone say it! THERE MIGHT BE A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL??? Especially for housing?

    Give us Geitner... today rumors of a 6pm confirm- futures up tomorrow!!!!..... give us this stimulus bill before the news gets too good... Have no individual stock blow ups, we have turned that ship folks... The next direction is UP. Now we have the ship pointed in the right direction.... we need to kick in the engine! THE BANK RESCUE PLAN IS THE LAST SPARK... Give us the Bad Bank in some form.... and as one of the floor guys said today on Bloomberg " We Could Fly "

    Fly sweet bird of truth!
    ~ stoney
  10. QCOM36.80 0.23 0.63% 2,898,592

    RHT 14.62 0.34 2.38% 156,696

    CYMI 21.31 0.56 2.70% 112,141

    GIGM 6.63 0.22 3.43% 58,338 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

    FFIV 23.99 0.74 3.18% 340,507

    Ok these are our BRS stocks they have been bought in the BRS accounts friday but today we will pick and chose among these and try to trade. The trick is to identify the greatest out performance.

    QCOM is lagging.
    GIGM is the most risky & smallest, so it's expectedly up big 3.4% Red Hat is up 2.3% 156K vol, FFIV is up 3.1% on 340K... FFIV would seem the most spunky.
    #10     Jan 26, 2009