Time for some more of my ethical bullshit. Some of you may have made money off the IOC call. This will be harder to game. But I will try to point out to you the problem with all the fast money and illegal games that the SEC doesn't seem to want to stop. Bank United. Read this. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080618/20080618006426.html?.v=1 Price of the stock at the time of the release was $3.50. Now: http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bkuna $1.34 The stock has been on the Reg Sho list for 103 days. Obviously, for you guys that PM me and ask how it works, they shorted the hell out of the stock in anticipation of getting stock from the company. Now, the company will have to sell three times the stock to get the 400 mm. There's a kicker at the end of this. Get away from the "oh, they're all shit companies," argument. Is it ethical to naked short, which is illegal, this company that is starving for dollars? The proof of the pudding will be about in four months. The SEC releases aggregate data well after the fact. I'll bet Baron's bottom dollar you'll see huge fails these past four days. Now, the kicker. Institutions are not participating here, and they are widely speculating the deal fails. If that happens, you might get a short squeeze. However, if it fails, they will look at this a s a signal all these small banks will be capital starved. Small banks will drop like Father Bob's drawers at the Kiddie Hop. And you guys idolize the 25% a year crowd. This is how they do it. Just like the street hooker bringing back a wad of cas h for pimp daddy. Wake up folks. They'll steal the gold from Grandma's teeth. As always, when I do my 'etical bullshit' routine, I have no position. Post script. Behind the squiggles, there are employees, depositors, businesses depending on the bank, the banks employees. Maybe we all deserve what we get. Half over? I think not.
LOL, I didn't think you were so sensitive. Despite your "ethical bullshit", nice trade analysis here. The regionals have been great for a week now. I'm interested in your thoughts on the sectors. There is blood in the water but we haven't got a true washout yet. 'The Boys' have been doing a good job at holding KEY up and FITB is hanging in there, HBAN not so much. The STI press releases the other day was a nice touch, but ultimately it looks like when the music stops there won't be enough chairs to go around. KBE, KRE, and RTH are nice if the ethics of trying to ride individual names into the ground is too morally reprehensible. I do feel for those for those are and will lose their jobs as this thing unfolds but I am not sure I have a moral or ethical obligation to go long these things when they are truely going in the shitter. Don't worry however, when they wsqueeze and bounce I go long as fast and as hard as I go short when they are puking. Keep the analysis coming Fly, its good and keeps the creative juices flowing. Cheers
Very interesting perspective. As much as I hate to admit it, we DO have a problem here. I didn't think naked shorting was an issue, but it is when financing becomes involved.
These companies are crap. If they were so well run why do they need the capital raise? These companies have been putting out false statements for the last two years on how well things are going for them and they continue to do so(Check BBT's press release on Thursday afternoon). Let's go through the list: BSC, ABK, MBI, MER, STI, COF, TMA, IMH...etc, etc. Everyone who bought a capital raise in the above got smoked. They will continue to get smoked until the entire sector gets washed out. I would put that timeframe around mid 2010. It seems as though who are the chronic complainers re the ones who are size long this crap.
Ah, the old "they're all shit companies defense." Scootch up to the screen there, Slappy. IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER! REPORTING COMPANIES DESERVE TO TRADE WITHIN THE LAW. DAVID EINHORN IS NOT THE SECOND COMING OF CHRIST!!!!!! We must do some work on comprehension here, kids.
OK, now that I've got that off my chest......... Financials can't bounce. Why? The average age of portfolio managers is about 32. If that's the average, you've got folks fresh out of college running money for value guys. This hit me when I saw that David Dremen owns something like 3% of Wamu. How can you own 3% of wamu????? I wouldn't have a CD with them. As a matter of fact, around the corner I have National City, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia. I'm buying coffee in the big cans, and dumping it out. That's just so I have a safe place to keep my money. Anyway, where was I. Oh. David Einhorn is not th....... no. Wait. Oh yeah....... These people were schooled in value. They pay big attention to book and cash flow. They think a chart book is something you use in the coffee room to level the table. What's killling them, is the continued write downs. Think. When was the first time you heard them say, "well, they're write DOWNS, because we will be able to write them up."? About three, four months ago. Right? So, all these kids, I have shoes in their early 20's, are up to their necks in this stuff, they have no room to buy, so , what's the alternative????? R A L p hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh uh. You guys learning this for the first time.....write this down. You'll see it again when I'm in Heaven. At least I hope I'm in Heaven. Hell would be ok, as long as I don't have to endur this crap anymore. Folks. The powers that be sold us, actually you, I never bought in, a huge bill of goods . Guess what. Payments due. And remember this. If guys cheat, they steal from you. If you can't help us because you really don't care about the other guy, no one can change that. But for Christ sake,, stand up for yourselves.
So, it is only the shorts that are cheating and violating the securites laws? You obviously don't get it. BOTH sides are cheating, but since these banks are worthless the shorts are winning. I understand why all these funds are on the wrong side, it is hard to get out of 5% of the outstanding in an orderly manner. So, why aren't you on the right side of this?
Deal can't get done, I hear. It could possibly get done in the future. However, if it can't, these guys are short/naked short a ton. Could be a pretty good squeeze if the company can survive. Now, what about the rest of the little guys? Looks like, no dough. Which means, many failures. No position.
$.85 They're good at what they do. Nice trade here, $3.40 to .85. And it was inevitable. No position.